ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts

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To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (75592)	1/7/2023 1:15:38 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	2 Recommendations Recommended By ajtj99 rimshot of 97932

I should also add that the wall of puts is still down around 3800 and below through January 20th and calls aren't high until around 4k on the SPX/SPY/ES. We have been getting in the habit of being around 3950 and 3850 ahead of big news so I suspect they will peg it around 3950 ahead of Thursday's CPI. Maybe a swoon down if Powell talks mega hawkish Tuesday morning just to shake out the call buyers Friday/Monday. I'm sure Powell isn't happy about Friday's ramp job so he'll probably talk tough again but this market has the memory of a goldfish and will forget by Wednesday morning. I keep reading about how we are getting close to "fair value" at PE 17. Not at 5% interest rates!!! Coe on people. The best commentary I've heard is The Fed rate market doesn't believe the Fed, The Bond market doesn't believe the Fed Rate market and the equity markets don't believe the bond market. It's also going to take time for the higher rates to filter down to the real economy and earnings. The Fed traders are pricing in rate cuts this year but the swaps market isn't until well into 2024.

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