| | | Now, a second week of good news! The NASDAQ Composite gained +4.8%, But the S&P Biotech index outperformed it, +5.2%.
While not astounding as last week (+206%), JSPR has a second great week, +62%, the second best performing contest stock this week. Most of its gain was on Friday in response to a press release touting three papers to appear in an upcoming conference. The general pattern of the response matched last week: a big bump (from $1.45 to 2.69) immediately after the market opens, with a substantial slide in price as apparently the market thinks better of its enthusiastic initial response, then closing at $1.78. (Please note that the thirty cent change in price for the week is compared to the start of year price to get the +62% gain.) This gives a net YTD profit of +268%. First place for weekly performance went to CDTX (+66%), with the 3rd place YTD return of +74%, apparently based on the response to their nomination of their first “ Oncology Clinical Development Candidate”, from their “Platform”. (The first time I’ve seen that IT buzzword applied to biotech development.) Third place for the week, FULC (+60%), and second place YTD (+88%), all on not much more than a “robust pipeline and business outlook for 2023”. All the good news is, in fact, good news, but it would be nice if it was based on actual reportable results that were “good”.
This week only a single issue stood out in the loser category, BCAB (-58%), apparently in response to a press release giving updates on several products’ clinical trials, which appears to announce good news, but from the market’s perspective was bad news.
On 1/12, Merck completed its purchase of IMGO for $36/share. Only a single portfolio had a position in it, which had a YTD return of only 0.14%. The proceeds from this sale were reinvested in the portfolio’s remaining selections.
Like the previous week, only a single portfolio was in the red for the week, but since it was for a different contestant, it now happens that every portfolio is in the black YTD. The average and median portfolio’s gave results for the week of +$9k. The portfolio YTD average performance (+$16k) is strongly outpacing both the NASDAQ and Biotech indices. It would be nice if this keeps up.
I had suggested last week that the report only track the top 5 portfolios, instead of ten as had been in previous years. The only explicit feedback received on this was requesting the top seven, so that is what we will show, for the time being.
The strong showing by JSPR for the second week meant that BLADERUNNER’s 20% position in it made them still in the number one spot, both for the week and YTD. ALONER repeated their appearance in second place for both recent and YTD. The gap between first and second widened to $43k. Inspecting BLADERUNNER’s portfolio choices, only IOVA is in the red for the week and YTD, and that only by just -$63 (YTD), out of a total portfolio profit of $69k.
JACK HARMANN made a big move from eighth to fourth YTD return, primarily thanks to a ten percent allocation to AMRN, (up +73% YTD).
Report Time Ranges
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From
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To
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Recent
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1/6/23
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1/13/23
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YTD
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12/31/2022
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Index Portfolios’ Performance
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Symbol
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Recent P/L
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Recent %
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YTD P/L
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^IXIC
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$4,871.38
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4.8%
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$5,853.69
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^NBI
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$1,858.92
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1.8%
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$3,643.16
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^SPSIBI
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$5,264.51
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5.2%
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$5,808.63
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Share Performance
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Recent Performance
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YTD Performance
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Top Five
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Bottom Five
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Top Five
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Bottom 5
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Symbol
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P/L / Initial Price
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Symbol
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P/L / Initial Price
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Symbol
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YTD P/L / Initial Price
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Symbol
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YTD P/L/ Initial Price
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CDTX
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65.7%
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BCAB
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-57.8%
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JSPR
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268.5%
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BCAB
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-58.1%
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JSPR
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62.1%
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ELYM
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-15.7%
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FULC
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88.2%
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FATE
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-46.5%
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FULC
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60.2%
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PRDS
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-13.0%
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CDTX
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74.5%
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GRPH
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-39.5%
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AMRN
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53.7%
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BLCM
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-11.8%
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AMRN
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72.7%
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PHAT
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-26.3%
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RVNC
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44.5%
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NBIX
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-11.7%
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ALGS
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72.1%
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PDSB
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-21.4%
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Average and Median Portfolio Performance
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Recent P/L
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YTD P/L
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Avg.
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Median
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Avg
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Median
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$9,216.19
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$9,138.27
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ERIKOTTO
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$16,460.49
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$12,448.50
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ARTHUR RADLEY
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Top Ten Portfolio Performances
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Top Recent Performers
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Top YTD Performers
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Contestant (Prev. Rank)
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Recent P/L
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P/L vs. ^SPSIBI
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(YTD P/L)
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Contestant (Prev. Rank)
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YTD P/L
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vs. Top Portfolio
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P/L vs. ^SPSIBI
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(Rec. P/L)
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1 - BLADERUNNER (1)
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$19,687.29
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$13,878.66
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$69,304.73
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1 - BLADERUNNER (1)
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$69,304.73
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——
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$63,496.09
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$19,687.29
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2 - ALONER (2)
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$15,413.82
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$9,605.18
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$26,667.56
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2 - ALONER (2)
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$26,667.56
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$42,637.16
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$20,858.93
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$15,413.82
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3 - STEVE LOKNESS (14)
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$15,248.04
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$9,439.41
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$15,917.23
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3 - DEW DILIGENCE (3)
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$21,607.89
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$47,696.84
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$15,799.26
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$13,157.87
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4 - JACK HARTMANN (8)
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$13,563.77
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$7,755.14
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$18,853.92
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4 - JACK HARTMANN (8)
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$18,853.92
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$50,450.81
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$13,045.29
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$13,563.77
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5 - DEW DILIGENCE (3)
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$13,157.87
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$7,349.24
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$21,607.89
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5 - ERIKOTTO (4)
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$16,986.83
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$52,317.89
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$11,178.20
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$9,138.27
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6 - TECHNETIUM (13)
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$10,778.63
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$4,969.99
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$11,618.14
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6 - STEVE LOKNESS (14)
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$15,917.23
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$53,387.49
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$10,108.60
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$15,248.04
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7 - ARTHUR RADLEY (11)
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$10,635.08
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$4,826.45
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$12,448.50
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7 - TOMATO (5)
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$12,842.90
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$56,461.83
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$7,034.26
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$6,003.67
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Top Portfolios’ Contents
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Top Recent Performance Portfolio (BLADERUNNER)
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Top YTD Performance Portfolio (BLADERUNNER)
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Symbol (Rank)
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Initial Allocation
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Current <Value | Return> %
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Recent % Price Change
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Recent Portfolio P/L
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% Current Price Change / $1,000
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Symbol (Rank)
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Initial Allocation
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Current <Value | Return> %
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YTD % Price Change
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YTD Portfolio P /L
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% Current Price Change / $1,000
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CRDF
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20.0%
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12.9% | 2.7%
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5.5%
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$1,142.86
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4.6%
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CRDF
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20.0%
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12.9% | 2.7%
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9.3%
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$1,857.14
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4.6%
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CRIS
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15.0%
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11.8% | 7.1%
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11.4%
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$2,037.27
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5.0%
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CRIS
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15.0%
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11.8% | 7.1%
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32.6%
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$4,895.45
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5.0%
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ENTA
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5.0%
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3.3% | 0.8%
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3.5%
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$184.87
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18.1%
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ENTA
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5.0%
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3.3% | 0.8%
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10.6%
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$530.95
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18.1%
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IOVA
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10.0%
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5.9% | -0.1%
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-0.2%
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-$15.65
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10.1%
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IOVA
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10.0%
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5.9% | -0.1%
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-0.6%
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-$62.60
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10.1%
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JSPR
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20.0%
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43.5% | 77.5%
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20.3%
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$12,422.36
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1.4%
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JSPR
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20.0%
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43.5% | 77.5%
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268.5%
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$53,706.00
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1.4%
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MBIO
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10.0%
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9.5% | 8.8%
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13.7%
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$1,934.18
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6.2%
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MBIO
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10.0%
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9.5% | 8.8%
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60.7%
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$6,068.35
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6.2%
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MGTA
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5.0%
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4.0% | 2.6%
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11.0%
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$675.95
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14.7%
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MGTA
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5.0%
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4.0% | 2.6%
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35.9%
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$1,797.47
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14.7%
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MRSN
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15.0%
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9.2% | 0.7%
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9.2%
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$1,305.46
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6.4%
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MRSN
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15.0%
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9.2% | 0.7%
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3.4%
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$511.95
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6.4%
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