Tenchu's Thoughts: Either Fight to Win, or Don't Fight at All
The fight for Soledar, and ultimately Bakhmut, should dispel a bunch of myths that many Westerners have adopted in recent months:
Battle For Bakhmut Exposes Wagner Group's Brutality, Limitations (msn.com)
First of all, as I mentioned many times in the past, the quantity IS the quality. RuZZia is literally throwing warm bodies into the meat grinder, but such brutal tactics aren't futile. Combined with a massive amount of artillery shells that could block out the sun, RuZZia is slowly but surely exploiting any gaps in the Ukrainian defensive lines and creeping forward.
Such tactics cost a ton of lives, but as we have seen time and time again, RuZZia is willing to pay such costs, and their "cannon fodder" troops are already resigned to their fate.
Ukraine simply cannot spare the lives.
Second, the whole notion of poorly trained, poorly motivated, and poorly supplied RuZZian troops seems to be a bit overblown. We aren't seeing the mass surrendering of RuZZian troops, or the mass desertions that the Ukrainians were hoping for. Like I said, even RuZZia's "cannon fodder" troops seem resigned to die for PooTin's lies.
Third, the illusion that PooTin keeps over his own people still seems to hold up. Moscow and St. Petersburg, for example, still look like modern functioning cities, albeit without any Western brands remaining. Their supermarkets still have plenty of food available, even though prices are rising.
Once full mobilization starts, that illusion will take yet another hit. But never underestimate the power of denial (h/t American Beauty). RuZZian citizens still believe PooTin is the means to their desired ends, which is political stability and economic prosperity. And if they have to sacrifice much of their able-bodied men in order to achieve those ends, so be it. Like their mobilized "cannon fodder," they are resigned to accepting this unspoken deal between PooTin and his citizens.
Fourth, Zelensky is no miracle-worker. He has done a phenomenal job with all of the assistance that NATO has provided, and he continues to be a popular motivating leader that keeps Ukraine in the fight, even under a brutal and mass-murdering RuZZian bombardment that seems to go unpunished by the West. But even after turning the tide of the war last year, RuZZia has regained the initiative, and Zelensky needs even more assistance from the West on top of what was already provided.
Finally, NATO needs to recognize that escalation is inevitable. They need to stop pussyfooting around and provide Ukraine with everything Zelensky is asking for. If that means providing modern F-16 fighter jets and M1 Abrams tanks (though the M1 might not be the best choice for Ukraine's needs), so be it. If that means providing more than one Patriot defense system, so be it.
Ukrainian troops continue to report that they are completely outgunned, and that the RuZZian attackers are well-supplied. The way around this is to provide many more force-multipliers to Ukraine, and I'm sure NATO has them.
After all, the problems with WWI-style combat have already been solved, haven't they? Yet it's astounding to me that PooTin's war of choice is reportedly resembling that of WWI. We know how to beat opponents that rely on trench and artillery warfare, don't we?
Bottom line, as always. Either fight to win, or don't fight at all.
Tenchusatsu |
