| | | Here we are, the third week of the contest. Inevitably, there are changes from the last two weeks, (but some things stay remarkably constant). The NASDAQ composite managed to end up slightly in the black (+0.6% for the week), but both biotech indices shed some value, though they are still in the black for the YTD performance. Looking at the individual issues, JSPR ran up another +31% of its initial contest price, landing in the third spot for this week’s performance. They have been 1st, 3rd, and 3rd for the contest too far. Not too surprisingly JSPR is at the top for YTD performance, with a net profit of +300% of a portfolio’s original investment. The first and second place stocks for the week are ALGS (+44%) (continuing a positive run for the year apparently based on an announcement that a Phase 2 study is “on track” for completion), and BLCM (+41%) (also generally positive for the year, but seeing a specific bump this last Monday, on Friday announced “Early Phase 1 Results" for their prostate cancer treatment are to be announced in an upcoming meeting), which were good enough that they made the second and third place YTD performance spots. Worst stock of the week, CDTX, suffered a steep decline opening on Friday, with heavy trading throughout the rest of day, so that the weekly performance (-71%) essentially returned the stock to its price at the start of the year.
All this bad news meant that the median portfolio dropped -$1,300 for the week, in the middle of the NASDAQ and S&P biotech indices performances (-$900 and -1,700 respectively). Only six portfolios ended up in the black for the week, but on the YTD performance all but one, who suffered the worst performance of the week -$8k, still stayed positive. YTD twelve portfolios continue to outpace all the indices, including the NASDAQ composite.
For the third week running, BLADRUNNER’s 20% plunge on JSPR, gave them top performance for the week, adding another $11k to their portfolio value.. Their first place YTD position improved to a net profit of $80k, and increased their cushion between themselves and second place from $43k to $50k. DEW DILIGENCE’s second place performance for the week (+$8.8k), was enough to move them into the second place. Half of their gain for the week (+$4.8k) was due to going large on RVNC (31% of his portfolio yielding $4.8k for the week) and a small position in top performing ALGS (15% of their portfolio, adding another $4.1k). The other portfolio choosing RVNC, TECHNETIUM, made it into 4th place for the week, and 5th YTD.
Because BLADERUNNER was first both YTD and for the week, it would have the third report in a row where they were the only portfolio covered in the report in detail. So to add a little variety, this week we also cover DEW DILIGENCE for his second place performance for the week. In BLADRUNNER’s case, besides his big payoff from JSPR, we see that the rest of his choices are not bad, only one (IOVA) in the red for the year, the rest all outperforming the NASDAQ composite. Turning to DEW DILIGENCE, the analysis blows their cover as the sole beneficiary of the purchase of IMGO mentioned last week. Their other 5 actively traded lchoices beyond RVNC and ALGS, only one, ORIC, was in the black for the week.
Thank you, for the feedback on the new report format. Talk to you all next week.
Report Time Ranges
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From
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To
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Recent
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1/13/23
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1/20/23
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YTD
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12/31/2022
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Index Portfolios’ Performance
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Symbol
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Recent P/L
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Recent %
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YTD P/L
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^IXIC
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$585.48
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0.6%
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$6,439.17
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^NBI
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-$903.88
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-0.9%
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$2,739.29
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^SPSIBI
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-$1,693.97
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-1.6%
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$4,114.67
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Share Performance
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Recent Performance
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YTD Performance
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Top Five
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Bottom Five
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Top Five
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Bottom 5
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Symbol
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P/L / Initial Price
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Symbol
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P/L / Initial Price
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Symbol
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YTD P/L / Initial Price
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Symbol
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YTD P/L/ Initial Price
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ALGS
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44.1%
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CDTX
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-71.0%
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JSPR
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299.6%
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BCAB
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-57.8%
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BLCM
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41.0%
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PSNL
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-36.4%
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ALGS
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116.2%
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FATE
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-45.8%
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JSPR
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31.1%
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AMRN
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-22.3%
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BLCM
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77.8%
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GRPH
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-41.9%
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RVNC
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20.5%
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PRQR
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-16.8%
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MBIO
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76.9%
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PDSB
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-30.3%
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LIAN
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19.0%
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GLYC
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-15.2%
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FULC
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73.5%
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PRQR
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-24.1%
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Average and Median Portfolio Performance
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Recent P/L
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YTD P/L
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Avg.
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Median
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Avg
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Median
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-$985.85
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-$1,295.14
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TOMATO
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$15,472.86
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$11,658.31
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ARTHUR RADLEY
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Top Seven Portfolio Performances
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Top Recent Performers
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Top YTD Performers
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Contestant (Prev. Rank)
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Recent P/L
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P/L vs. ^SPSIBI
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YTD P/L (Rank)
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Contestant (Prev. Rank)
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YTD P/L
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vs. Top Portfolio
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P/L vs. ^SPSIBI
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Rec. P/L (Rank)
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1 - BLADERUNNER (1)
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$10,734.50
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$12,428.47
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$80,039.23 (1)
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1 - BLADERUNNER (1)
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$80,039.23
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——
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$75,924.56
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$10,734.50 (1)
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2 - DEW DILIGENCE (5)
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$8,844.74
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$10,538.70
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$30,425.97 (2)
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2 - DEW DILIGENCE (3)
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$30,425.97
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$49,613.26
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$26,311.30
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$8,844.74 (2)
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3 - RAJU_BIJLEE (9)
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$2,767.35
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$4,461.31
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$13,373.97 (7)
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3 - ALONER (2)
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$17,927.50
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$62,111.73
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$13,812.83
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-$8,740.07 (14)
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4 - TECHNETIUM (6)
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$1,997.94
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$3,691.91
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$13,616.08 (5)
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4 - ERIKOTTO (5)
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$13,692.64
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$66,346.59
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$9,577.97
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-$3,294.20 (11)
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5 - RKRW (11)
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$1,333.35
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$3,027.32
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$9,508.78 (10)
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5 - TECHNETIUM (9)
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$13,616.08
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$66,423.15
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$9,501.42
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$1,997.94 (4)
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6 - A.J. MULLEN (13)
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$402.21
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$2,096.17
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$7,481.75 (11)
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6 - JACK HARTMANN (4)
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$13,499.30
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$66,539.93
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$9,384.63
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-$5,354.62 (12)
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7 - ARTHUR RADLEY (7)
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-$790.19
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$903.77
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$11,658.31 (8)
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7 - RAJU_BIJLEE (10)
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$13,373.97
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$66,665.26
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$9,259.31
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$2,767.35 (3)
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Top Portfolios’ Contents
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Second Place Recent Performance Portfolio (DEW DILIGENCE)
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Top YTD Performance Portfolio (BLADERUNNER)
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Symbol (Rank)
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Current Allocation
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<Value | Recent Return> / Total
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Recent % Price Change
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Recent Portfolio P/L
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% Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L
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Symbol (Rank)
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Initial Allocation
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<Value | YTD Return> / Total
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YTD % Price Change
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YTD Portfolio P /L
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% Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L
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ALGS
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10.0%
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15.3% | 45.9%
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44.1%
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$4,058.46
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5.0%
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CRDF
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20.0%
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14.0% | 6.6%
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26.4%
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$5,285.71
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4.0%
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ASMB
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10.0%
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8.5% | -4.2%
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-3.8%
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-$372.72
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9.0%
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CRIS
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15.0%
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10.6% | 5.1%
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27.3%
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$4,090.91
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5.2%
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ENTA
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25.0%
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20.6% | -7.1%
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-2.5%
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-$630.01
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3.7%
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ENTA
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5.0%
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3.0% | 0.5%
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8.1%
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$404.13
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18.5%
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IMGO
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0.0%
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0.0% | 0.0%
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0.0%
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$0.00
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----
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IOVA
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10.0%
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5.5% | -0.2%
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-1.9%
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-$187.79
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10.2%
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ORIC
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10.0%
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8.7% | 14.6%
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12.9%
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$1,295.60
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8.8%
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JSPR
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20.0%
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44.4% | 74.9%
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299.6%
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$59,917.18
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1.3%
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PMGM
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10.0%
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7.6% | -1.8%
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-1.6%
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-$159.15
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10.1%
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MBIO
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10.0%
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9.8% | 9.6%
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76.9%
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$7,691.14
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5.7%
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PRDS
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10.0%
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8.7% | -1.3%
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-1.2%
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-$114.41
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8.8%
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MGTA
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5.0%
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3.6% | 1.8%
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29.1%
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$1,455.70
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15.5%
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RVNC
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25.0%
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30.7% | 53.9%
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20.5%
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$4,766.96
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2.5%
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MRSN
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15.0%
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9.1% | 1.7%
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9.2%
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$1,382.25
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6.1%
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