AMD 2022-Q4 EPS Contest (non-GAAP) — Results
| Reported Results: | $0.69 | $5.60B | $5.30B ± 0.30B | | Rank | User | EPS | Revenue | Outlook | | 1 | neolib | $0.69 | $5.40B | $4.80B | | 2 | Vattila | $0.70 | $5.60B | $5.60B | | - | Zacks Estimate | $0.66 | $5.51B | $5.57B | | 3 | Kelvin C.P. Wang | $0.72 | $5.70B | $5.80B | | 4 | rzborusa | $0.63 | $5.40B | $5.60B | | 5 | Joe NYC | $0.58 | $5.20B | $5.30B | | 6 | Pravin Kamdar | $0.55 | $5.20B | $5.30B |
Congratulations to Neolib with the winning entry — the revision paid dividends, earning him a bullseye and robbing me of victory! I got the bullseye on revenue, though. And I am pleased that we both beat Zacks! Kelvin got third place, just ever so slightly beaten by Zacks. Commiserations go to Joe and Pravin for coming last, despite both hitting bullseye on the outlook. Notably, only Neolib and Kelvin fell outside the range of the outlook, being too pessimistic or optimistic, respectively.
For the full year scores, where all categories have equal weight, Zacks has us all beaten, sadly — both on the full-year scores and the quarterly average. Joe takes the top position among us on the full-year scores, with Neolib and me in second and third place, respectively. Gvatty is ranked first on the quarterly average scores, based on two solid entries, with Joe and Neolib in second and third place, respectively.
Thanks to all for playing!
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Scoreboards
Note that, unlike the main EPS Contest, which is primarily ranked by EPS, these boards are ranked by overall score, which is an equally weighted average of subscores. Scores are calculated as (1+error)^-2 per quarter and normalized for the year by sum(scores)/4. The squaring of the denominator in the score calculation is just done to spread out the scores a little. There is no explicit relative weighting of EPS and revenue error, i.e. a 1 cent error in EPS equals a $10M error in revenue.
AMD 2022 EPS Contest Scores
| 2022 Full year scores |
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| | Rank | User | Entries | EPS score | Revenue score | Outlook score | Overall score | | - | Zacks Estimate | 4 | 0.92 | 0.83 | 0.62 | 0.7895 | | 1 | Joe NYC | 4 | 0.82 | 0.72 | 0.75 | 0.7618 | | 2 | neolib | 4 | 0.90 | 0.73 | 0.65 | 0.7617 | | 3 | Vattila | 4 | 0.87 | 0.84 | 0.51 | 0.7390 | | 4 | Pravin Kamdar | 4 | 0.81 | 0.71 | 0.69 | 0.7371 | | 5 | rzborusa | 4 | 0.81 | 0.73 | 0.56 | 0.7020 | | 6 | Kelvin C.P. Wang | 4 | 0.84 | 0.75 | 0.48 | 0.6925 | | 7 | gvatty | 2 | 0.48 | 0.38 | 0.30 | 0.3848 | | 8 | fastpathguru | 1 | 0.15 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 0.1038 |
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| | 2022 Quarterly average |
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| | Rank | User | Entries | EPS score | Revenue score | Outlook score | Overall score | | - | Zacks Estimate | 4 | 0.92 | 0.83 | 0.62 | 0.7895 | | 1 | gvatty | 2 | 0.95 | 0.75 | 0.60 | 0.7696 | | 2 | Joe NYC | 4 | 0.82 | 0.72 | 0.75 | 0.7618 | | 3 | neolib | 4 | 0.90 | 0.73 | 0.65 | 0.7617 | | 4 | Vattila | 4 | 0.87 | 0.84 | 0.51 | 0.7390 | | 5 | Pravin Kamdar | 4 | 0.81 | 0.71 | 0.69 | 0.7371 | | 6 | rzborusa | 4 | 0.81 | 0.73 | 0.56 | 0.7020 | | 7 | Kelvin C.P. Wang | 4 | 0.84 | 0.75 | 0.48 | 0.6925 | | 8 | fastpathguru | 1 | 0.59 | 0.42 | 0.24 | 0.4153 |
AMD 2021 EPS Contest Scores
| 2021 Full year scores |
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| | Rank | User | Entries | EPS score | Revenue score | Outlook score | Overall score | | 1 | Kelvin C.P. Wang | 4 | 0.93 | 0.86 | 0.72 | 0.8397 | | 2 | Joe NYC | 4 | 0.94 | 0.88 | 0.69 | 0.8367 | | 3 | rzborusa | 4 | 0.95 | 0.78 | 0.70 | 0.8105 | | 4 | Pravin Kamdar | 4 | 0.93 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.8101 | | 5 | gvatty | 4 | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.69 | 0.8068 | | 6 | Vattila | 4 | 0.92 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.7966 | | - | Zacks Estimate | 4 | 0.83 | 0.65 | 0.53 | 0.6694 | | 7 | neolib | 3 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.6614 | | 8 | engineer | 1 | 0.24 | 0.18 | 0.21 | 0.2111 | | 9 | fastpathguru | 1 | 0.23 | 0.18 | 0.15 | 0.1852 | | 10 | eetnoyer | 1 | 0.20 | 0.17 | 0.10 | 0.1556 |
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| | 2021 Quarterly average |
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| | Rank | User | Entries | EPS score | Revenue score | Outlook score | Overall score | | 1 | neolib | 3 | 0.95 | 0.88 | 0.82 | 0.8819 | | 2 | engineer | 1 | 0.96 | 0.73 | 0.84 | 0.8445 | | 3 | Kelvin C.P. Wang | 4 | 0.93 | 0.86 | 0.72 | 0.8397 | | 4 | Joe NYC | 4 | 0.94 | 0.88 | 0.69 | 0.8367 | | 5 | rzborusa | 4 | 0.95 | 0.78 | 0.70 | 0.8105 | | 6 | Pravin Kamdar | 4 | 0.93 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.8101 | | 7 | gvatty | 4 | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.69 | 0.8068 | | 8 | Vattila | 4 | 0.92 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.7966 | | 9 | fastpathguru | 1 | 0.92 | 0.71 | 0.59 | 0.7408 | | - | Zacks Estimate | 4 | 0.83 | 0.65 | 0.53 | 0.6694 | | 10 | eetnoyer | 1 | 0.78 | 0.68 | 0.40 | 0.6222 |
AMD 2020 EPS Contest Scores
| 2020 Full year scores |
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| | Rank | User | Entries | EPS score | Revenue score | Outlook score | Overall score | | 1 | Vattila | 4 | 0.95 | 0.85 | 0.65 | 0.8169 | | 2 | neolib | 4 | 0.98 | 0.80 | 0.61 | 0.7972 | | - | Zacks Estimate | 4 | 0.94 | 0.79 | 0.62 | 0.7856 | | 3 | Pravin Kamdar | 3 | 0.72 | 0.62 | 0.50 | 0.6128 | | 4 | rzborusa | 3 | 0.69 | 0.57 | 0.47 | 0.5812 | | 5 | Kelvin C.P. Wang | 1 | 0.24 | 0.23 | 0.17 | 0.2150 | | 6 | jc474 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.2020 |
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| | 2020 Quarterly average |
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| | Rank | User | Entries | EPS score | Revenue score | Outlook score | Overall score | | 1 | Kelvin C.P. Wang | 1 | 0.96 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 0.8601 | | 2 | Pravin Kamdar | 3 | 0.96 | 0.83 | 0.66 | 0.8171 | | 3 | Vattila | 4 | 0.95 | 0.85 | 0.65 | 0.8169 | | 4 | jc474 | 1 | 0.92 | 0.74 | 0.76 | 0.8080 | | 5 | neolib | 4 | 0.98 | 0.80 | 0.61 | 0.7972 | | - | Zacks Estimate | 4 | 0.94 | 0.79 | 0.62 | 0.7856 | | 6 | rzborusa | 3 | 0.93 | 0.76 | 0.63 | 0.7749 |
AMD 2019 EPS Contest Scores
| 2019 Full year scores |
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| Entries | EPS score | Revenue score | Outlook score | Overall score | | - | Zacks Estimate |
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| 4 | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.96 | 0.9708 | | 1 | Vattila |
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| 4 | 0.98 | 0.96 | 0.84 | 0.9264 | | 2 | Pravin Kamdar |
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| 4 | 0.98 | 0.95 | 0.84 | 0.9258 | | 3 | rzborusa |
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| 3 | 0.73 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.7106 | | 4 | neolib |
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| 3 | 0.73 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.6977 | | 5 | knykny |
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| 2 | 0.49 | 0.46 | 0.40 | 0.4496 | | 6 | gzubeck |
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| 2 | 0.46 | 0.37 | 0.32 | 0.3822 | | 7 | THE WATSONYOUTH |
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| 1 | 0.25 | 0.24 | 0.25 | 0.2468 | | 8 | FUBHO |
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| 1 | 0.21 | 0.20 | 0.25 | 0.2199 | | 9 | Harvey Allen |
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| 1 | 0.20 | 0.17 | 0.25 | 0.2058 |
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| | 2019 Quarterly average |
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| | Rank | User |
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| Entries | EPS score | Revenue score | Outlook score | Overall score | | 1 | THE WATSONYOUTH |
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| 1 | 1.00 | 0.96 | 1.00 | 0.9871 | | - | Zacks Estimate |
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| 4 | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.96 | 0.9708 | | 2 | rzborusa |
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| 3 | 0.97 | 0.93 | 0.94 | 0.9475 | | 3 | neolib |
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| 3 | 0.97 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.9303 | | 4 | Vattila |
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| 4 | 0.98 | 0.96 | 0.84 | 0.9264 | | 5 | Pravin Kamdar |
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| 4 | 0.98 | 0.95 | 0.84 | 0.9258 | | 6 | knykny |
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| 2 | 0.97 | 0.93 | 0.80 | 0.8991 | | 7 | FUBHO |
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| 1 | 0.84 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 0.8796 | | 8 | Harvey Allen |
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| 1 | 0.80 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.8230 | | 9 | gzubeck |
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| 2 | 0.92 | 0.73 | 0.64 | 0.7643 |
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