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To: Wharf Rat who wrote (1389792)

2/3/2023 4:53:07 PM

From: Wharf Rat

Read Replies (1) of 1571859

Main Topic: Generational Cold Outbreak “Gamma” Affecting New England

Dear Diary. An extreme cold wave will briefly send temperatures and wind chills to near all-time record low values this weekend, something that many hardy residents have near experienced during their lifetimes. I’ve dubbed this outbreak major category three “Gamma” since it’s not in association with a winter storm. We saw Beta in November:

Extreme Temperature Diary- Tuesday November 15th, 2022/ Main Topic: Update on U.S. Cold Wave Beta – Guy On Climate

You can peruse my criteria for naming and ranking cold waves here:

Extreme Temperature Diary- Monday November 30th, 2020/ Main Topic: A Saffir-Simpson Type Scale For Cold Waves – Guy On Climate

Thank goodness this cold wave will be confined just to the Northeast with relief coming for most areas by Sunday and Monday.

Looking at 500 millibar anomalies we can see the culprit for record chill:

Temperature values at 500 millibars under the purply shaded vortex located over southeast Canada will be nearly off the scale and should be under 470 decameters by Saturday morning. Notice that on the above Pivotal chart that the 500 millibar pattern across the Northern Hemisphere is quite elongated and amplified. This fits in with the theory that climate change is weakening the polar vortex, so some record chill ironically can be caused by global warming. At the moment there is a lot of anomalous warmth north of the Arctic Circle in association with the chilly pattern set to strike the Northeast:

Latest (2023/02/02) 1-day area-weighted 2m temperature anomalies calculated from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and CFS Reanalysis (CFSR). The anomaly values fluctuate day-to-day and week-to-week depending on prevailing weather patterns. For context, daily temperatures for the domains below are available via interactive charts for the entire CFS/CFSR 1979–present record. Anomalies are based on 1979–2000 climatology for the specific day of the year.

WorldNorthern HemisphereArctic+ 0.5 °C+ 0.83 °C+ 3.44 °C

TropicsSouthern HemisphereAntarctic+ 0.29 °C+ 0.17 °C+ 0.19 °C

So, just how cold and brutal will Gamma get? Here is a report from Ian Livingston of the Washington Post:

Here’s how cold it will get in the Northeast from the polar vortex – The Washington Post
guyonclimate.com

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