Research results giveth … and research results taketh away.
On our fifth weekly report leaving a more than decent January behind, starts February with some unusual changes.
Another good week for the general market, the NASDAQ composite up 3.3% last week, making it a 15% gain since the start of the year. Biotechs were a little more mixed, with the NASDAQ biotech index off -1% and the S&P biotechs posting a +1% gain. In contrast to the last year, S&P’s picks have done substantially better than the issues that make up the NASDAQ biotech index, by more than a factor of 2.8.
Looking at individual stocks, the top five performers for this week were all in the YTD top five, with two of them displacing last week's top five.
The familiar ticker JSPR rebounded from the worst weekly performance to the fifth best, +39%. The only news of note for JSPR was that following the successful capitalization placement, discussed in last week’s report, as per an earlier agreement contingent on that placement, was offered an option on roughly .1 million shares at the option (strike?) price of 1.78, Friday’s opening price. A quarter of this will vest in a year, with the remainder to be vested in monthly fractions that will complete the full offer in four years, depending on his continued employment with JSPR. While potentially good news for one guy (the closing price for the day at 1.93 represented a profit of $165k for the day), the market’s response seems to say they like the idea of this guy sticking around.
CDTX, last week’s top performer, posted a weekly gain of +40% this week to take the 4th place, predominately as a gradual rise from Wednesday. Here the only additional news from last week's FDA advisory panel favorable recommendation was the announcement on Friday of an expansion of their relationship with the Chinese company XDC (Wu Xi).
In second place for the week, PSNL (up +77% for the week), announced on Friday with Moderna tor their use of the PSNL “platform” (there’s that word again).
But the top winner for the week, and most significant stock for the contest, was MGTA, doubling in price, almost all of which was on Friday. Three contestant portfolios chose MGTA, which right now hold the first, second and third place positions in both the recent and YTD performance. There were two recent articles about MGTA in Yahoo’s news feed: On Thursday, MGTA announced that the company was "to halt further development of its programs and conduct a comprehensive review of strategic alternatives focused on maximizing shareholder value.” Clearly, the market was tantalized with the possibility a sale of the company or some such that would result in cash to the stockholders. The reason for this “change in direction” probably was due to the subject of a news article on Friday afternoon: “Magenta Therapeutis to shut down after patient death”.
The ultimate fate of MGTA is almost certain delisting by NASDAQ, but a patient's death notwithstanding, the market thinks that there is some IP meat on the bones, enough to generate a tidy return to stockholders. We’ll see.
For the contestants, it was a pretty good week. Only one portfolio was in the red. But, there were clearly some big individual winners, with an average profit of $6.3k, as opposed to the median weekly performance of $3.4. The top three (the ones who selected MGTA) had profits of $15k to $26k, while fourth place was $7.1k. This was enough to bring STEVE LOKNESS from 12th to 3rd place and ALONER from 6th to second place. Looking at STEVE LOKNESS’s portfolio, in addition to the $10k they earned for their 10% stake in MGTA, they lbenefitted more from the 15% invested in PSNL.
BLADERUNNER’s five week monopoly on the first place YTD position owe’s their increased pad of $55k between themselves and second place ALONER not so much to being the third portfolio to have chosen MGTA, only a 5% investment in any case, but rather the ongoing strength of their being the sole portfolio with any position in JSPR. In fact they have four stocks with a larger profit than their position in MGTA.
Report Time Ranges
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From
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To
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Recent
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1/27/23
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2/3/23
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YTD
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12/31/2022
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Index Portfolios’ Performance
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Symbol
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Recent P/L
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Recent %
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YTD P/L
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^IXIC
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$3,680.75
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3.3%
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$14,718.17
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^NBI
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-$975.01
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-0.9%
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$2,926.41
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^SPSIBI
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$1,214.22
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1.1%
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$8,245.90
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Share Performance
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Recent Performance
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YTD Performance
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Top Five
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Bottom Five
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Top Five
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Bottom 5
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Symbol
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P/L / Initial Price
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Symbol
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P/L / Initial Price
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Symbol
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YTD P/L / Initial Price
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Symbol
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YTD P/L/ Initial Price
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MGTA
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99.9%
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ACRS
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-21.8%
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JSPR
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299.6%
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BCAB
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-48.2%
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PSNL
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76.8%
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LIAN
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-20.7%
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INZY
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172.4%
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GRPH
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-37.7%
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INZY
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45.7%
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TWST
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-16.1%
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MGTA
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116.9%
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PDSB
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-35.2%
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CDTX
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39.7%
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ALGS
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-14.7%
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CDTX
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99.7%
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FATE
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-31.9%
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JSPR
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39.3%
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IDIA.SW
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-13.2%
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PSNL
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97.0%
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APTA.L
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-23.5%
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Average and Median Portfolio Performance
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Recent P/L
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YTD P/L
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Avg.
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Median
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Avg
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Median
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$6,311.41
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$3,418.91
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ERIKOTTO
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$25,442.30
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$22,879.56
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ARTHUR RADLEY
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Top Seven Portfolio Performances
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Top Recent Performers
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Top YTD Performers
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Contestant (Prev. Rank)
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Recent P/L
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P/L vs. ^SPSIBI
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YTD P/L (Rank)
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Contestant (Prev. Rank)
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YTD P/L
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vs. Top Portfolio
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P/L vs. ^SPSIBI
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Rec. P/L (Rank)
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1 - STEVE LOKNESS (7)
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$26,463.53
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$25,249.31
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$36,822.76 (3)
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1 - BLADERUNNER (1)
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$92,700.86
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——
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$84,454.97
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$15,529.58 (3)
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2 - ALONER (9)
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$17,013.68
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$15,799.46
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$37,792.00 (2)
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2 - ALONER (6)
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$37,792.00
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$54,908.87
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$29,546.10
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$17,013.68 (2)
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3 - BLADERUNNER (15)
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$15,529.58
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$14,315.36
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$92,700.86 (1)
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3 - STEVE LOKNESS (12)
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$36,822.76
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$55,878.11
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$28,576.86
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$26,463.53 (1)
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4 - ARTHUR RADLEY (5)
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$7,134.67
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$5,920.45
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$22,879.56 (8)
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4 - JACK HARTMANN (3)
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$32,206.09
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$60,494.77
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$23,960.20
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$6,528.02 (6)
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5 - TOMATO (13)
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$6,671.79
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$5,457.57
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$18,884.06 (9)
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5 - DEW DILIGENCE (2)
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$32,134.16
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$60,566.70
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$23,888.26
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$744.38 (13)
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6 - JACK HARTMANN (1)
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$6,528.02
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$5,313.80
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$32,206.09 (4)
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6 - RAJU_BIJLEE (4)
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$27,051.32
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$65,649.54
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$18,805.43
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$3,313.92 (9)
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7 - BULBAMAN (14)
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$4,992.82
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$3,778.60
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$7,808.22 (13)
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7 - ERIKOTTO (5)
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$24,335.66
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$68,365.20
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$16,089.76
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$3,418.91 (8)
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Top Portfolios’ Contents
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Top Recent Performance Portfolio (STEVE LOKNESS)
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Top YTD Performance Portfolio (BLADERUNNER)
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Symbol (Rank)
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Current Allocation
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Value/Total | ROI
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YTD Stock P/L
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Recent Stock P/L
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% Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L
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Symbol (Rank)
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Initial Allocation
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Value/Total | ROI
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YTD Stock P/L
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Recent Stock P/L
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% Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L
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AKYA
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15.0%
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13.7% | 25.3%
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$3,793.10
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$1,536.05
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5.3%
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CRDF
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20.0%
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14.3% | 37.9%
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$7,571.43
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$2,714.29
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3.6%
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CRBU
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5.0%
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4.4% | 21.0%
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$1,050.96
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$246.82
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16.5%
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CRIS
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15.0%
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11.0% | 41.8%
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$6,272.73
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$13.64
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4.7%
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GRPH
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10.0%
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4.6% | -37.7%
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-$3,765.06
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$391.57
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16.0%
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ENTA
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5.0%
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2.9% | 12.9%
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$642.73
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$51.59
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17.7%
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MGTA
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10.0%
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15.9% | 116.9%
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$11,693.67
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$9,994.94
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4.6%
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IOVA
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10.0%
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6.5% | 24.9%
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$2,488.26
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-$281.69
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8.0%
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MRUS
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15.0%
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11.2% | 2.3%
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$349.06
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$1,047.19
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6.5%
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JSPR
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20.0%
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41.5% | 299.6%
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$59,917.18
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$7,867.49
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1.3%
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NAUT
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10.0%
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8.5% | 16.1%
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$1,611.11
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$555.56
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8.6%
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MBIO
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10.0%
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8.8% | 69.9%
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$6,992.41
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-$729.11
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5.9%
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PACB
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10.0%
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10.3% | 41.6%
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$4,156.48
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-$244.50
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7.1%
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MGTA
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5.0%
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5.6% | 116.9%
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$5,846.84
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$4,997.47
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9.2%
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PSNL
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15.0%
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21.6% | 97.0%
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$14,545.45
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$11,515.15
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3.4%
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MRSN
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15.0%
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9.3% | 19.8%
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$2,969.28
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$895.90
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5.6%
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QSI
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10.0%
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9.8% | 33.9%
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$3,387.98
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$1,420.77
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7.5%
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