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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated

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pak73

To: Winfastorlose who wrote (777134)	2/6/2023 4:16:54 PM
From: TimF	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) of 793597

At best for Russia its very close, very slow, and very uncertain. They tend to advance more often than Ukraine, but their reverses have happened faster when they've happened (other than the areas taken in February 2022 Russia was applying something like a 20 or more to one firepower advantage for a brief time when Ukraine started running out of its own artillery shells and no significant artillery was given to Ukraine and Ukraine had no M270s or HIMARS. The GMLRS rockets have forced Russia's artillery depots further away weakening their already stretched logistics and reducing the ability of Russia to sustain fire. Now its probably more like 4 or 5 to 1 in raw artillery (more in long range strike capability, less to much less in other forms of firepower). Still a significant advantage but apparently used less flexibly and precisely.Russia is almost certainly not firing anywhere close to 60,000 artillery rounds a day, and probably does not have the capability to do so. And they have repeatedly thrown lightly armed infantry in to Ukranian artillery. It might be mobiks and esp. convicts. They might not be losing anywhere near the level of experienced soldiers, but the convict recruiting seems to be drying up for precisely that reason (the convicts don't want to turn a prison term until a death sentence), and convict or draftee making them in to literal cannon fodder isn't a good way to win a war. Ukraine seems to have over 30 million people left. Many are internally displaced but that's still in Ukraine. In any case war is not a simple matter of "largest population wins". But lets assume I'm too optimistic about what's happening now in Ukraine. Some of your points are clearly overstatements but lets say its closer to your opinion than mine. Having higher casualties does not imply that you will keep having higher casualties or that you will lose. Also once again Zelenskyy can't make peace, the massive concessions Russia would demand would never pass in the Verkhovna Rada. (Putin can if not without some risk), and if he could he would be giving Russia an advantage for any future attacks.

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