ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts

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To: The Ox who wrote (76642)	2/10/2023 1:58:54 PM
From: Sun Tzu	2 Recommendations Recommended By ajtj99 skier31 Read Replies (1) of 98067

Good observations and yes to Tuesday - Thursday fireworks. ========== SOX is priced on the basis that this quarter is the bottom. Any hints that the sales are not picking up will likely sink it hard, unless companies strongly state that the sales are in but just slightly delayed. Even then it depends on what else is going on. Equities - especially long dated equities (I know, SOX doesn't belong there), are vulnerable to the change in bond positioning. The priced in narrative has been that the Fed will cut by July and we're heading for a soft landing. The two parts of this statement are somewhat contradictory. If we're having a soft landing, then there is little reason for the Fed to cut rates. And if they see the need to cut rates, then the economy is too soft and the soft landing narrative is iffy. The counter argument to that is that fiscal policy from China (and Biden) will offset the monetary tightening. It is possible. But it is a narrow path.

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