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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 385.99+1.6%Nov 12 4:00 PM EST

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To: ggersh who wrote (196056)2/10/2023 9:57:06 PM
From: sense  Read Replies (2) of 217737
 
Yada, yada, yada...

None of that "news" or "surprising" ?

Similarly, Russians flew as many Iraqi fighters in Iraq as Iraqis did, and same and similar elsewhere, even back to Vietnam... There's nothing at all new going on here, now... and silly to say "Russians get to do that" with impunity... but "no else can"...

Same stupid mercenary games played by Russia in Syria, and the same bogus "little green men" joke in the various Russian actions... where you'd have to be a world class dupe to believe those were "entirely organic local militia movements"... the way Russia tried to spin them.

Even bitching about coups in Ukraine (and Belarus) gets you the same thing... with "competing coups"... the first "pro-Russian... but not popular... the second clearly a massive populist movement... leaving you to determine which of them is more legitimate than the other ?

But, whats legitimate and whats not isn't really that hard to sort ? Russians rump "elections" conducted in the wake of a pseudo "uprising"... about as ham-fisted as obvious military invasion... yeah... "not" legitimate.

But, that clearly is made a global political game piece, now... as elections are increasingly interfered with and manipulated... to and beyond the point of being made both obvious and irrelevant by fraud... as appears is true of Biden's own "selection"...

The (not uniquely) American political left, today, clearly have more in common with China and Russia than they have with the views of the average American, or in aligning with traditional American values... and they have been actively pursuing a "soft" ( but increasingly less so over time ) coup of their own for some time ?

The left have deliberately factionalized the government and "weaponized it" against the American people... against the Constitution, and rule of law... and specifically their political opponents.

I get that MSM bots pretend to be stupid about such things... which doesn't mean we have to play along with that, too ?

But, accepting that sort of thing as "normal" and expected behavior from Russia or China... misleads you into thinking the "exact same thing" naturally was or is occurring in the west. Germany was free to chart its own path, post Cold War... and they largely did... but, then, doing that while failing to listen to others warnings, they also made a massive mess of their own situation... as I'd noted before, accomplished by playing both sides against the "German middle" and thinking that was "clever"... and they did that deliberately, thinking it wouldn't ever matter. Germany was all in on "cheap Russian gas" for Germany, and all in on thinking that meant Putin wouldn't do... exactly what he did... in Ukraine, or anywhere else.. But, also, note... Ukraine being physically invaded as it was, was only the last step in that process... after Putin had played the energy "trump" card for a while, prior. Others had warned them, endlessly, that Russia would use that economic leverage the Germans enabled them with... when they judged the opportunity ripe... but, Germany ignored that.

Of course, it was also stupid of Putin to destroy all the post Cold War benefit that trade with the west had already enabled in Russia, during that time, along with gambling away all of Russia's "good will" and its economic future by going all in on a losing bet.

Germany had long pooh-poohed the risk of fostering that economic dependence on Russia... did it in spite of other allies objections... and did it at same time they welched on their financial and defense obligations, seeking to win a few percentage points of GDP in competitive advantage over others by cheating all of Europe... and all the western aligned states, and the rest of the world, are paying the price for it now... in disrupted markets, in the cost of addressing the consequences of the fallout of Germany's failure in choosing that policy, and in a greatly elevated risk of WW III... as they try to rush to rebuild alternative supply lines, fix what they broke in energy supply, and begin to address the resulting inability to defend themselves, etc.

Overly happy go lucky American's... who've been holding up Germany's end while they've been cheating their European partners... aren't... but should be... extremely pissed off at Germany. But, there are likely to be natural consequences in Europe, and in NATO, in result... including "loss of respect" for Germany, and likely long term economic trends shifting to advantage a less gullible France, and Poland, other eastern European states. Of course, that's why you saw Trump haranguing them about "get it together" or the U.S. pulling $ and troops out. And, some of that was done... if not enough to make them wake up.

Not all is Germany's fault, of course... Putin owns at least as much of the blame for practicing the frauds and deceptions that he has... posing as a trustworthy economic partner while never intending good faith. And, the hubris... much like that you see in China, often, these days... should have been a clear enough tell.

The drivers... in Germany... two fold, IMO. One, that a re-unified Germany still leans a lot farther left, politically, than a divided West Germany ever did... and the left tend to be stupid about such things... and also choose to have a weaker attachment not only to reason, but to fundamental western principles... and it meant the myopic socialist leaning wings in German politics were deliberately ignorant about the risks being taken. Two, in that Germany did think it "clever" of themselves. to "be competitive" by cheating on their obligations... spending a couple of GDP percentage points less on defense than they had in obligations... and, with that, related "cheats" that others would inevitably tire of, in time...

I saw plenty of opinion, mostly from the left, before Putin went stupid, that NATO wouldn't last much longer... because "no longer needed". Now, it should me more apparent that it is not NATO, but the more left leaning... and irresponsible... EU that is proving itself essentially superfluous... or, useless in any case.

Germany still acts as if it is "the essential nation" in NATO, and in Europe... but, the reality is... that no one other than Germany is able to see them that way today. German leadership has been proven a disaster for Europe, for NATO and for the world...


Of course, the U.S. now doing all it can under Biden to try to catch up with Germany's record...

Trump simply should have made it clear, when he was threatening Europeans about the need to step up to meet NATO funding obligations... that what he was threatening them with was a future American president who was wildly corrupt and incompetent... even before he became demented.

But, given where things are, now... not a simple matter to predict where things are likely to go from here...

Maybe American's will take a deeper look at it... and decide that George Washington had it right... that we'd be dramatically better off to just let Europe ferment in its own political stew... while doing all we can to cut future ties with European political "thinking"...
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