| | | This week, there is some improvement over last week, but not quite up to the torrid growth in January.
The NASDAQ Composite and the NASDAQ biotech index were up by +0.6%, and the S&P biotech was even stronger, up +1.5%.
This week’s top stock OCUL jumped up 85% for the week, most of it on Friday after releasing interim results for a phase I study of an implant used in the treatment of wet macular degeneration. This was enough to move it into the 3rd place YTD perforcemance, up +123%. Second place, INZY, was up +41% on Thursday, again based on favorable results of a Phase I/II study. This makes up for the -38% loss INZY posted last week, and maintained its second place YTD growth of +175%.
This week’s worst performing stock, GTHX was down -57% for the week. most of it in the opening Monday drop. One of the Institutional Investors probably decided to exit, perhaps anticipating bad earnings expected later in the week. GLYC, our second place loser for the week shed -52%, putting it as the third worst YTD pick (-38%). Again, the drop was at the very start of the week. On Tuesday, a press release reported an interim analysis of a phase III study. With no significant finding, neither good nor bad, the study will continue to completion. 80% of the data has been reported already, so perhaps this is another case of the placebo performing better than expected, but waiting until you already have 80% of the data is rather late in the game when doing an interim analysis.
This happens from time to time, especially as clinical trials enroll only the healthiest patients possible, and provide everyone, especially the placebo group, with “standard of care” that may be better healthcare than they would have received otherwise.
The point of an interim analysis is, to quote a song by The Clash:
Should I stay or should I go now?
If I go there will be trouble
And if I stay it will be double
So come on and let me know
Should I stay or should I go?
This indecision's bugging me
If you don't want me, set me free
———
The contest portfolios had a mixed week, with a median return of only +$8.86, with the +$887 bump in the average weekly return put into the black entirely thanks to three portfolios choice of OCUL. There are now two portfolios in the red YTD. That the YTD median return (+$23k) is now larger than the portfolio average (+$22k) is another way of saying that the overall contest return is no longer a story dominated by the success of the top performers.
The three portfolios that had selected OCUL were one, two, three for the week’s return: RKRW (+$11.4k), TOMATO (+$8.1k), and ERIKOTTO (+$7.2k). . This was enough to take RKRW from 12th to 7th place for their YTD performance (+$24k), and TOMATO up two spots from 7th to 5th (+$26.6k). BLADERUNNER is still in first place YTD (+$81k), though losing -$1.8k for the week. STEVE LOKNESS’s 5th place performance for the week (+$3.2k, assembled from decent performance from all his choices rather than a particular standout stock) was enough to slip past ALONER into the second place YTD (+$33.9k). The cushion that BLADERUNNER holds for his top position continues to erode, slowly, $48k to $47k.
Report Time Ranges
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From
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To
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Recent
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2/10/23
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2/17/23
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YTD
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12/31/2022
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Index Portfolios’ Performance
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Symbol
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Recent P/L
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Recent %
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YTD P/L
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^IXIC
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$660.69
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0.6%
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$12,619.24
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^NBI
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$646.49
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0.6%
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$945.32
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^SPSIBI
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$1,583.47
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1.5%
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$4,022.59
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Share Performance
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Recent Performance
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YTD Performance
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Top Five
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Bottom Five
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Top Five
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Bottom 5
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Symbol
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P/L / Initial Price
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Symbol
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P/L / Initial Price
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Symbol
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YTD P/L / Initial Price
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Symbol
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YTD P/L/ Initial Price
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OCUL
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85.4%
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GTHX
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-57.3%
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JSPR
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276.8%
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BCAB
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-54.9%
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INZY
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41.0%
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GLYC
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-52.8%
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INZY
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175.2%
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AVTX
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-38.3%
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ALGS
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18.9%
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BLCM
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-33.3%
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OCUL
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123.1%
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GLYC
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-38.0%
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MDGL
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15.8%
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CABA
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-28.5%
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MGTA
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117.7%
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FATE
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-35.1%
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LQDA
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15.1%
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OMER
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-25.2%
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CDTX
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114.2%
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PDSB
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-33.3%
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Average and Median Portfolio Performance
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Recent P/L
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YTD P/L
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Avg.
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Median
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Avg
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Median
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$886.97
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$8.86
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BULBAMAN
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$21,870.58
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$23,308.27
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ERIKOTTO
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Top Seven Portfolio Performances
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Top Recent Performers
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Top YTD Performers
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Contestant (Prev. Rank)
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Recent P/L
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P/L vs. ^SPSIBI
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YTD P/L (Rank)
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Contestant (Prev. Rank)
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YTD P/L
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vs. Top Portfolio
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P/L vs. ^SPSIBI
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Rec. P/L (Rank)
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1 - RKRW (8)
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$11,384.65
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$9,801.18
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$23,568.09 (7)
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1 - BLADERUNNER (1)
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$80,644.34
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——
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$76,621.76
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-$1,813.05 (11)
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2 - TOMATO (3)
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$8,090.15
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$6,506.68
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$26,623.83 (5)
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2 - STEVE LOKNESS (3)
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$33,867.02
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$46,777.33
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$29,844.43
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$3,206.91 (5)
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3 - ERIKOTTO (12)
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$7,243.24
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$5,659.77
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$23,308.27 (8)
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3 - ALONER (2)
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$31,152.61
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$49,491.74
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$27,130.02
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-$3,344.82 (13)
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4 - ARTHUR RADLEY (10)
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$7,199.13
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$5,615.66
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$22,690.46 (9)
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4 - JACK HARTMANN (4)
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$26,662.23
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$53,982.11
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$22,639.64
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-$1,461.55 (10)
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5 - STEVE LOKNESS (9)
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$3,206.91
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$1,623.44
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$33,867.02 (2)
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5 - TOMATO (7)
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$26,623.83
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$54,020.51
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$22,601.25
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$8,090.15 (2)
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6 - DEW DILIGENCE (14)
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$2,435.07
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$851.60
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$25,209.27 (6)
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6 - DEW DILIGENCE (5)
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$25,209.27
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$55,435.08
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$21,186.68
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$2,435.07 (6)
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7 - TECHNETIUM (6)
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$2,296.69
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$713.22
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$14,861.94 (11)
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7 - RKRW (12)
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$23,568.09
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$57,076.26
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$19,545.50
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$11,384.65 (1)
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Top Portfolios’ Contents
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Top Recent Performance Portfolio (RKRW)
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Top YTD Performance Portfolio (BLADERUNNER)
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Symbol (Rank)
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Current Allocation
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Value/Total | ROI
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YTD Stock P/L
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Recent Stock P/L
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% Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L
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Symbol (Rank)
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Initial Allocation
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Value/Total | ROI
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YTD Stock P/L
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Recent Stock P/L
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% Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L
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ETON
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10.0%
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10.0% | 23.0%
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$2,304.96
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$212.77
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8.1%
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CRDF
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20.0%
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14.9% | 35.0%
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$7,000.00
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-$428.57
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3.7%
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HROW
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10.0%
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9.8% | 21.1%
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$2,113.82
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-$501.36
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8.3%
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CRIS
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15.0%
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10.3% | 24.5%
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$3,668.18
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-$1,131.82
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5.4%
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KALV
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10.0%
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9.7% | 20.1%
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$2,011.83
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$236.69
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8.3%
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ENTA
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5.0%
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3.0% | 8.8%
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$441.75
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-$259.03
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18.4%
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KPTI
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10.0%
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8.4% | 4.4%
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$441.18
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$911.76
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9.6%
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IOVA
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10.0%
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6.4% | 15.0%
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$1,502.35
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-$15.65
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8.7%
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MOR
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10.0%
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10.6% | 31.0%
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$3,100.56
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-$782.12
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7.6%
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JSPR
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20.0%
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41.7% | 276.8%
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$55,362.32
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$1,656.31
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1.3%
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OCUL
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10.0%
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18.1% | 123.1%
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$12,313.17
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$8,540.93
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4.5%
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MBIO
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10.0%
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9.0% | 61.9%
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$6,194.94
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-$774.68
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6.2%
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PHAT
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10.0%
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7.0% | -13.5%
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-$1,345.81
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$1,408.20
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11.6%
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MGTA
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5.0%
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6.0% | 117.7%
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$5,886.08
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$189.87
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9.2%
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TCON
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10.0%
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9.4% | 16.1%
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$1,610.74
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$402.68
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8.6%
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MRSN
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15.0%
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8.6% | 3.9%
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$588.74
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-$1,049.49
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6.4%
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TELA
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10.0%
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7.7% | -5.0%
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-$504.35
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-$217.39
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10.5%
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URGN
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10.0%
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9.3% | 15.2%
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$1,521.98
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$1,172.49
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8.7%
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