I read the BGS conference call. Things sounds pretty good for them. Having come out of the chaos of the H1 2022 inflation mess, they sound like they should be well on their way back to normal.
However, there's one thing I didn't understand.
They just did 40 cents EPS in Q4 2022. They indicated there are pushes and pulls in various trends (prices, demand, blah blah blah). My takeaway is that in 2023 there is more likelihood of easy improvements on a return to normal environment, than unexpected disasters causing weakness.
So........here's the question. If they did 40 cents EPS in Q4 2022, why is full year 2023 EPS guidance about $1.00? Why not $1.60 (40 cent x 4)?
Do you know? I wouldn't expect major seasonality in a food company. Shouldn't they do 40 cents every quarter, and better if (as it sounded from their call) if things in general are improving?
The full year numbers are
2022 revenues = $2.16b, 2023 guidance = $2.15b
2022 EBITDA = $301m, 2023 guidance = $320b.
The only bad change I would think is interest expense.
Lets see
2022 interest expence = $125m, they don't guide 2023, but Q4 was $36m, so 2023 about = $144m
If EBITDA for 2023 is up $19m from 2022, and interest expense is up $19m, it's a wash.
Why is forecast annual EPS only $1.00? Is it normal for BGS to have a much larger Q4 EPS than Q1-3 EPS? |
