Pre-engineered tipping point... ?
Along with the fake "run-up"... to prep for the drop... as Powell turns "hawkish" after being a dove for a week ?
This from March 1, just coincidence, relative to last week in the trade:
Kashkari Says Wage Growth Is Too High, Fed Can't Declare Victory Or There Will Be "Flood Of Exuberance"
But requires ignoring:
US Bankruptcy Filings Surge At Fastest Pace Since 2009
Maybe... a skeptic might think... carefully orchestrated... planned as misdirection ?
Consumers Hit A Brick Wall: January Credit Growth Craters As Interest Rates Soar
Goldman Expects Nearly 1 Million Drop In Tomorrow's Job Openings
I've been talking about how they've been rigging job statistics for a long time... Biden's crew went over the top with it just prior to the election. Goldman is pointing out here, that basically they've been caught out, now, and "fixing it" is going to mean... a big drop in the numbers...
But, conveniently, that big drop coming exactly when the rest of the inputs say they'd prefer to have one, now?
The article:
Almost as if there is a political mandate under the Biden administration to fabricate data with the purpose of making the labor market appear stronger than usual. Of course, Goldman would never admit that political apparatchiks planted in the Dept of Labor and BLS have been tasked with "seasonally adjusting" numbers to make Biden look good. Instead it offers the following two explanations why the official data no longer represents reality:
We see two explanations for why the most recent JOLTS report likely overstates job openings.
- First, the spurious evolution of seasonal factors during the pandemic likely biased JOLTS job openings upwards by 300-400k in December, but should have a negligible effect on the level of job openings in January.
- Second, the response rate to the JOLTS survey collapsed from just below 60% in 2019 to 31% in December 2022. We see no reason why the lower response rate should imply a directional bias, but it does imply increased volatility that argues for discounting the recent JOLTS report, especially because it is so far out of line with timelier job openings indicators.
Goldman's conclusion: since the BLS will find it difficult to rig the data any longer various adjustments fall out in the latest dataset, the bank sees "scope for a large pullback in official job openings in the US and forecast that job openings will fall by 800k to 10.2mn in next week’s January JOLTS report."
A nearly 1 million drop in JOLTS will quickly reprice much of the recent tightening driven by expectations of "no landing" which has sent the terminal rate to 5.65% and the 2s10s below -100bps.
Keep your salt shakers handy... you're going to need a few more grains...
As "actual economic data" showing economic impacts of raising rates at the fastest pace in history begin to come in... and, why are used car prices suddenly soaring, again... ?
Should we expect to see proofs that "they got this" ?
OR, do the whip saws in the market now... only supply proofs that mine from March 3 on "oversteering and understeering" was spot on ? |
