Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum

WDC 290.23

+7.4%

Feb 3 3:59 PM EST

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To: Stitch who wrote (2450)	2/13/1998 4:26:00 AM
From: Z Analyzer	Read Replies (2) of 9256

Lawrence and Stitch, Basically, I had too big a position in QNTM to be able to stomach the stock going back to 18 or 20. I guess I also felt the tech rally is not really based on strong fundamentals and that I didn't care to be in these stocks when March qtr earnings warnings begin for other tech companies and those impacted by Asia. Hopefully the disks won't miss their already low expectations, but I do expect a HTCH miss and that the weak Asian currencies are playing a big role in their low production figures. One analyst felt they had lost significant market share, that customers felt TSA too expensive and stock price too high. The other felt we wouldn't see much pullback in price even with another earnings disappointment. Not sure what to do with the cash at this point. (Any ideas?) Will watch HTCH for significant pullback in price or pick up in production. I think the straw that broke the camel's back for me was hearing that the high end drives (Atlas III, Viking II) were a quarter late to market. I don't have the patience to wait a year to see if QNTM's next gen is the first ever to be successful. Quantum unsuccessfully produced high end drives well prior to the Digital acquisition, so the history of losses in both high end and heads now runs for many years. I was also very discouraged to hear that QNTM's next Fireball was 2.5 per platter, although this info has been debated here. I'm surprised they haven't announced the product yet with Maxtor talking about their next several generations. In summary, it seemed all the reasons I owned Quantum in August had changed very materially (even my beloved DLT had at least temporary setbacks) and I had promised myself not to own these things thru the next spring/summer correction.

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