I've stuck to my "short list" like glue this week... not traded at at all... sitting on hands.
But, have also quibbled with myself over timing... re when this goes from "about banking" to people realizing that a (global) banking system with no viable money in it... essentially has no utility.
Stock markets... need banks with money in them to keep stock markets working ?
So, the case for "long Nigeria" is... everyone else just now being introduced to reality... while Nigeria shrugs it off as "more of the same old" ? Long Naira ? Or, maybe not:
Nigeria's old currency can be used longer amid cash crisis
The many impacts should include... the failure of all the "enablers"... as the Fed, the IMF, and the BIS... other "globalist banking cabals"...
If the institutions do somehow survive it... "reforms are needed"... ?
But, how long before we get there... and what does the path look like ? For now all we get is a snapshot in the dark... showing "Deer in Headlights"... Would be a good meme. Stick antlers on Powell and Yellen heads on deer bodies... make their eyes glow ?
Rates have ALREADY been raised to where they are... way too high, way too fast... after waiting way too long to start... so, dramatically "under-steering"... and then "correcting" by "over-steering"... and, next ???
We wait to see a proper test of Powell's vestibular functions, hand-eye coordination, and reaction time...
Banks already spinning out... Bridge abutments looming... Outcome a total crap shoot...
Maybe the brakes still work... but... will we find out before it doesn't matter ? Or, at the worst possible time ?
They got a late start, so turned the heat up too late and way too high... can you smell that ? It's obviously not the ideal roasting profile... but, have seen ZERO coverage of probable / predictable impacts of that no doubt predictable set of choices made ? But, having made the decision to do what they did... the reality to understand now is that in the resulting impacts... as, whatever they are ... they are ALL baked in already... The banking issues being exposed now... are "the beginning" of recognizing that problem set imposed... not the "end of the problem coming into view" ? So, even if you DO panic and go for another round of massive over-correction in the opposite to save the banking system... the issue is...it isn't ONLY about the banks... where there are now whisps of smoke rising... from banks also screwing themselves into light sockets ? The bigger issue is...
You can't uncook a turkey... by turning the oven down.
A lot of people in the market seem to think "OK. We know the oven is too hot, now, so we can fix it"... but, also, optimistically "you can't really tell what's actually happening in there"... And, won't know... until the little button pops out and tells you that its done... ? Or, you know... catches on fire ?
Others, of course, still think cooking the turkey at 650 degree for 25 minutes will just save time... and, since just having opened the oven to check on it... another hundred degrees should help keep things on track... ?
Options expiry on Friday... and a whole weekend to consider the news flow...and Monday's choices... ? |
