Re <<Gold... isn't a "small" trade...
... "they" just applied $2 trillion in additional QE... (ie, took a $2 trillion systemic loss and swept it under the rug, unrecognized, as QE, or as "loss aggregation" currency/shares... converting "losses" into "banks capital"...
But, if the banks all evaporate as insolvent... so do the counter-parties in all your trades ?
So, a limit to the utility in ETF's, or shares held in street name, or ETN's particularly... at the point liquidity dies...
And, then... physical gets repriced... paper gets immolated... and a Great Reset happens, ready or not... with the outcome unlikely to be determined by those posturing as "in charge of it"now.... as they prove bankrupt.
That also means... any strategy using leverage in ETFs... has to be "trade completed"... profits taken... $ converted to physical... before the wheels come off and leave you trapped holding in a paper trade ?>>
... Yeah, that, I am not good at agility when sh*t is all over the arena and starts flying after NY market-close on Fridays, which they tend to happen, coincidences doubtless, SVB, CS, etc.
Also, I remember 2008/9 when Hang Seng Bank HQ, the go-to bank for physical in HK limited all customers to 20 troy oz per day and there was a huge line, including a grumbling Korean lady in front of me volunteered unhappily that her husband had asked to to line up day after day to buy (ID based, and tagged to HSB bank a/c). I asked her what her husband did for toiling, and she said "banker".
All other physical dealing banks (BOC, Nanyang, etc) had run dry.
I did not do day after day because I had been accumulating not-<<"small">> since long ago, stubbornly, steadily, as a matter of uncontrollable habit akin to taking in peanuts, good and bad years, and was just absorbing the atmospherics to embrace the energy.
So, at that juncture, gold essentially went unobtainium, even as there was no clear imminent danger that paper gold would go poof, the classically expected penultimate act before the ultimate, that all banks shuts down, healthy or otherwise, Argentina fashion.
Now, gold goes up but is not going up, because we are still a bit off of ATH of 20x0, and am not excited, with my gold sitting at last-time-mark-to-market 1,751, close to the cost basis of 1,711. Excitement should be ignited at 2,500, and takeoff at 3,000. The time from ignition to takeoff can be a matter of days, months, years, or effectively never. Drama. I prefer days.
In such light, gold is not an investment except for annual accounting purpose, but an evergreen-allocation much like cash deployment into other cash, and all cash waits for definitive call of duty.
Gold is like nuclear weapons, if ever called on, somethings will have gone very wrong.
A guess. |
