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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 156.00+0.6%Nov 28 9:30 AM EST
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To: LLCF who wrote (4828)2/13/1998 8:36:00 AM
From: Mason Barge  Read Replies (3) of 10921
 
H&Q and Bernstein seem to be saying what we all think, i.e., that semi equipment demand is going to come way up sooner or later and when it does, the good issues are going to suddenly double/triple/whatever. Kurlak and several others seem to be saying that the Asia mess is masking a periodic overall global downturn in IC demand growth and that we are entering a long down cycle. They could both be right. Kurlak's comments, also, concern an analysis of the semiconductor sector, proper, so he doesn't address an issue of major concern to us -- the need for IC fabs to upgrade manufacturing technology even when their product market isn't growing.

Personally, I have no idea about where the sector is headed. I'm siding with the H&Q folks and holding a few good issues long, and by long I mean three to four years if necessary. It's the only thing I can figure out to do with any assurance. The only advice I would give anyone is to be careful with KLAC, or anyone else with exposure to increased competition from AMAT.

When I have time, I'll probably do a Warren Buffett type analysis and pick some long term holdings. I have a feeling that if Buffett had to buy a stock in this sector, he'd take AMAT.
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