There might be turmoil that move the BRL within this year
My take is:
Lula out. Vice President Alckmin in.
In less than 3 months his political capital, i.e., the guy who made magic with the Commodities Supercycle, is gone.
Keep people's perceptions in mind. The perception, now, is of pessimism with the economic situation.
The consumer sees inflation, (food, fuel, things that affect people's daily lives) then higher taxes come on top. Only a very obtuse person will not make the connection- economic situation <-> Lula.
Lula just hasn't thrown in the towel yet because he still believes in miracles. Because Lula is contemplating the abyss with the sharp stones down there. End of career. Ostracism. Unable to even go out on the streets.
Such a man is desperate. He is in China now. He longs for the decade when China imported commodities and provided the bonanza for him to play the guy who multiplied the bread and fish and make rain to fall.
His favorable press already started questioning his reasoning.
Some allies already started distantiating themselves from him.
This is the calm before the storm.
I am waiting to see what Xi will pull on him. Want to show Buiden he is not heppay :-)
Here The Guardian on Lula's visit:
“The Brazilian side was so dissatisfied with what it got from the American side that Lula took the decision to meet Biden’s enemies in the Democratic party [Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez] before meeting Biden himself,”
Spektor said of what he called Lula’s brief and tense visit.
(ELMAT: and it was Bolsonaro who antagonized friendly countries' heads of state of state)
“This is what Brazil wants: to go to China, to try and get more concessions from the US. And after that go to the US to try to get more concessions from China … They are hedging their bets.”
But Spektor said that by undertaking such a high-profile tour of China after such a lackluster excursion to the US, Lula risked signalling to Washington that he was aligning himself with Beijing.
Here how far Lula gne to antagonize the United States
Reuters earlier this month reported that Brazil had bowed to U.S. pressure and declined Iran's request for the vessels to dock in Rio in late January, in a gesture from Lula as he flew to Washington to meet U.S. President Joe Biden.
However, with Lula's trip over, the ships have been allowed to dock. Vice Admiral Carlos Eduardo Horta Arentz, the deputy chief of Brazil's Naval Staff, gave his approval for the ships to dock in Rio between Feb. 26 and March 4, according to a Feb. 23 notice in the official gazette.
reuters.com |
