Tom Kurlak a con artist? Not! Daniel, notwithstanding the tone of the article in your post, the only point that the facts of the article demonstrate is that Kurlak has had a superior track record as of late in his Intel call, which is clearly the most important call in the market segment in which he operates. Specifically, from the time he issued his near term buy on Intel in '96 to the time he changed his rating to hold (sell) INTC returned the investor one hundred and sixty percent. Since he issued his "sell" on INTC an investor short on mighty INTC would have received a fourteen percent return on his investment. If that isn't a superior record, I don't know what is. The article seems to indicate that nothing had changed on INTC to merit its one day swing (which totaled two points at the days end), but it misses the point. Kurlak's opinion was that the fundamentals had changed on the company, and he was absolutley right. Stock manipulation? No way. Again, as the article indicates, there are another sixty-five analysts covering the company, so manipulation simply could not happen with this large cap stock.
Moreover, Kurlak is paid to base his analysis on fundamentals. The short-term outlook for LSI's fundamentals are marginal at best. And it has low visibility on much of its forward looking products--products whose desirability could evaporate overnight in the rapidly changing semimarket. (Can anybody spell VTSS?). When the visibility changes, Mr. Kurlak will no doubt change his mind, and it will undoubtedly happen when LSI's stock price has already risen substantially. But he is not paid to bottom pick. He is paid to recommend a stock on fundamentals.
Having offered this defense of Mr. Kurlak, I want you to know that I am a raging bull on LSI. I think that somewhere in the year 2000, it will hit 100. And I will be there as I am today holding a not small position. But one analyst I will pay attention to is Kurlak. Why? Because his record of calling a top in semis is outstanding--simply because the fundamental picture via price changes more clearly at the top of the semi market than at the bottom.
Finally, if every one wants to deprecate these so-called "con artists, I will only remind everyone on this board that I offered the opportunity with a real prize to beat the analysts. To date not one of the experts out there in SI Land has risen to the challenge. It's nice to talk the talk, but walking the walk is a different story, and so far I've seen just talk. |
