Well, we’ve come to the last weekly report for the month of March, and the first quarter of the contest. An up week generally, so March was more like January than February. The NASDAQ Composite portfolio added +$3.8k for the week (+3.4%), closing out the quarter with a gain of +$16.8k. Not bad. The biotech composites were also positive for the week, adding +$2.3k and $2.4k, but they are still trying to dig out from an almost uniformly horrendous February, so their portfolio values are still in the red -$2.1k for the NASDAQ biotech index, and -$8.7k for the S&P biotech index.
For the individual shares, last week’s number one stock (INZY +83% for last week), turned on the after burners and this week jumped an additional +203% above the original price. In the same way, building on its previous number two YTD performance, it zoomed past a slumping JSPR, ending with the quarter’s P/L +460%. The reason for the jump is at best obscure. Half of the rise was on Friday, and as near as I can tell was response to an in depth analyst’s report (https://finance.yahoo.com/m/4610be97-08f6-386f-8ace-6b758682e109/here-s-why-inozyme-pharma-has.html) dropping that morning. It’s actually an interesting read (behind a paywall) in that at the outset the analyst says that their product market prospects and any technological breakthroughs are beyond his ability to comment on, then proceeds with an opaque “chart reading” so-called technical analysis (which generally I regard as only a smidge more useful than the Magic 8 Ball) ending with a declaration of a strong upside for this stock. The disclaimer paragraph is the kicker, where he says that actual events like, you know, trial results or FDA actions could make the technical analysis useless, then artfully says that a positive review might by itself affect the stock performance. Let’s see where INZY sits in another three quarters.
Second place VKTX (+83% of original price for the week) at least had some biotech news, in particular a positive phase 1 result for its anti-obesity drug on Tuesday, as well as the initiation of a Phase 1 Study of a second product. And in striking-while-the-iron-is-hot news, on Wednesday they announced an underwritten public offering. On Thursday they gave the offering’s details as 17.2 million shares priced at $14.50. (It closed Friday at $18, making for some very happy underwriters).
This week’s big loser was GMDA (-42%), most of it on Monday is response to an annual report whose first bullet point begins “Company reports on productive interactions with FDA …”. The rest of the report includes the news that it will conduct a strategic restructuring to prioritize a single product and reduce operating expenses (later highlighted as “discontinue development of natural killer cell preclinical candidates and consolidate is operations in Israel”.
In second place for the week, JSPR continued its general slide (-39%), with a YTD gain well back of INZY.
For the contest portfolios, things were broadly positive, though about a third were still in the red for the week. The median gainer for the week added +$3.8k, and the portfolio YTD P/L is a not shabby +$8.9k.
The top performer for the week was ERIKOTTO, +$10k, almost entirely from his 5% bet on INZY, the only portfolio to have chosen it. Technetium, the only holder of VKTX, also with only a 5% position, again almost entirely responsible for a weekly gain of +$4.4k that put their portfolio in 6th for weekly performance, and allowed them to break back into the top seven YTD. In contrast, our long running YTD number one portfolio entered by BLADERUNNER, made a 20% bet on JSPR. And yes, that meant that they were the worst portfolio for the week (dropping -$3.1k) but JSPR’s second place YTD return of +250% kept them at the top of the YTD leader board.
ALONERs 3rd place finish for the week, +$8.9k, allowed their YTD record to move past TOMATO into second place. What with BLADERUNNER’s drop in YTD value, the gap between first and second place has now shrunk to $25k.
Report Time Ranges
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Recent
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3/24/23
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3/31/23
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YTD
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12/31/2022
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Index Portfolios’ Performance
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Symbol
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Recent P/L
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Recent %
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YTD P/L
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^IXIC
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$3,802.10
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3.4%
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$16,771.87
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^NBI
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$2,319.64
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2.4%
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-$2,084.91
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^SPSIBI
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$2,416.83
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2.7%
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-$8,724.56
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Share Performance
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Recent Performance
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YTD Performance
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Top Five
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Bottom Five
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Top Five
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Bottom 5
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Symbol
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P/L / Initial Price
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Symbol
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P/L / Initial Price
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Symbol
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YTD P/L / Initial Price
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Symbol
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YTD P/L/ Initial Price
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INZY
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202.9%
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GMDA
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-41.9%
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INZY
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445.7%
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ALT
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-74.3%
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VKTX
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83.0%
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JSPR
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-39.3%
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JSPR
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274.7%
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BCAB
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-67.5%
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OMER
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35.0%
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PRQR
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-34.9%
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PRVB
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128.0%
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AVTX
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-65.3%
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EYEN
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33.7%
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PIRS
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-27.3%
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EYEN
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116.6%
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FULC
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-60.9%
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CRVS
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27.1%
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ALGS
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-26.9%
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OMER
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105.8%
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GLYC
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-58.4%
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Average and Median Portfolio Performance
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Recent P/L
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YTD P/L
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Avg.
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Median
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Avg
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Median
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$3,389.04
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$3,836.98
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TOMATO
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$8,338.49
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$8,861.62
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ERIKOTTO
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Top Seven Portfolio Performances
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Top Recent Performers
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Top YTD Performers
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Contestant (Prev. Rank)
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Recent P/L
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P/L vs. ^SPSIBI
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YTD P/L (Rank)
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Contestant (Prev. Rank)
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YTD P/L
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vs. Top Portfolio
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P/L vs. ^SPSIBI
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Rec. P/L (Rank)
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1 - ERIKOTTO (5)
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$10,003.38
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$7,586.54
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$8,861.62 (8)
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1 - BLADERUNNER (1)
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$58,543.53
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——
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$67,268.09
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-$3,148.40 (15)
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2 - RKRW (7)
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$9,955.89
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$7,539.06
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$19,590.33 (6)
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2 - ALONER (3)
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$33,640.81
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$24,902.72
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$42,365.37
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$8,929.71 (3)
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3 - ALONER (15)
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$8,929.71
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$6,512.88
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$33,640.81 (2)
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3 - TOMATO (2)
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$29,029.58
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$29,513.95
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$37,754.14
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$3,836.98 (8)
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4 - ARTHUR RADLEY (9)
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$7,809.32
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$5,392.48
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$20,204.20 (5)
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4 - STEVE LOKNESS (4)
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$22,460.46
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$36,083.07
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$31,185.01
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$6,015.50 (5)
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5 - STEVE LOKNESS (6)
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$6,015.50
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$3,598.67
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$22,460.46 (4)
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5 - ARTHUR RADLEY (5)
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$20,204.20
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$38,339.33
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$28,928.76
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$7,809.32 (4)
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6 - TECHNETIUM (10)
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$4,399.39
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$1,982.55
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$8,888.56 (7)
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6 - RKRW (6)
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$19,590.33
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$38,953.20
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$28,314.89
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$9,955.89 (2)
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7 - A.J. MULLEN (2)
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$4,005.04
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$1,588.21
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-$8,679.42 (12)
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7 - TECHNETIUM (8)
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$8,888.56
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$49,654.97
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$17,613.12
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$4,399.39 (6)
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Top Portfolios’ Contents
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Top Recent Performance Portfolio (ERIKOTTO)
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Top YTD Performance Portfolio (BLADERUNNER)
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Symbol (Rank)
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Current Allocation
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Value/Total | ROI
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YTD Stock P/L
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Recent Stock P/L
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% Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L
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Symbol (Rank)
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Initial Allocation
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Value/Total | ROI
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YTD Stock P/L
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Recent Stock P/L
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% Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L
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CABA
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15.0%
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12.3% | -10.6%
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-$1,589.19
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$1,200.00
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7.5%
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CRDF
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20.0%
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14.9% | 17.9%
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$3,571.43
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$1,857.14
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4.2%
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DAWN
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10.0%
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5.7% | -37.9%
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-$3,787.17
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-$906.13
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16.1%
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CRIS
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15.0%
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10.3% | 8.4%
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$1,254.55
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$1,445.45
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6.2%
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FULC
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10.0%
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3.6% | -60.9%
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-$6,085.16
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-$412.09
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25.5%
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ENTA
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5.0%
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2.7% | -13.1%
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-$653.48
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$39.77
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23.0%
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ICVX
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5.0%
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3.4% | -27.0%
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-$1,347.61
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-$289.67
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27.4%
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IOVA
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10.0%
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6.0% | -4.4%
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-$438.18
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$907.67
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10.5%
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INZY
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5.0%
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25.1% | 445.7%
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$22,285.71
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$10,142.86
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3.7%
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JSPR
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20.0%
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47.3% | 274.7%
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$54,948.24
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-$7,867.49
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1.3%
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LIFE
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10.0%
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8.8% | -4.1%
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-$410.96
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$821.92
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10.4%
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MBIO
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10.0%
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5.9% | -7.2%
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-$718.99
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$430.38
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10.8%
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OCUL
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10.0%
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17.2% | 87.5%
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$8,754.45
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$1,245.55
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5.3%
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MGTA
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5.0%
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6.3% | 101.2%
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$5,059.49
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$89.87
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9.9%
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PDSB
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10.0%
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4.3% | -53.4%
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-$5,340.91
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$250.00
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21.5%
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MRSN
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15.0%
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6.6% | -29.9%
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-$4,479.52
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-$51.19
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9.5%
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PRQR
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10.0%
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5.3% | -42.4%
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-$4,243.24
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-$3,486.49
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17.4%
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URGN
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15.0%
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14.4% | 4.2%
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$625.70
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$1,437.43
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6.4%
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