| | | This week has been, with one exception, essentially a story of “steady as she goes”. Speaking in general terms, the NASDAQ Composite dropped a per cent for the week, but YTD is still up over +15%. Both the Biotech indices were in the black for the week, but both, particularly the S&P Biotech index, are still losers YTD, struggling to recover from an awful February.
In terms of specific stocks, there was no huge winner for the week, but more than respectable returns for the top five, running from +16% to +28% of their initial price. MOR’s +28% was a primarily a bump on Wednesday because, according to Motley Fool, they announced that they had fulfilled the enrollment for a Phase III Trial, the excitement coming from the prospect of have “top-line” results by the end of the year, as opposed to sometime in 2024. OK. CRVS, up +20% for the week, has generally had a pretty good run for the last 4 weeks. This week, the good news was that interim results from a Phase I study validate the use of a new biomarker for tracking performance. Sure. Well, none of the winner’s for the week broke into the top five YTD winners, but for some contestants they made this a good week.
For the big losers of the week, JSPR dropped another -70% of its initial price, but even so it is still triple what it was at the close of Dec 30th last year, and firmly in second place for YTD performance. MBIO (-36% for the week) had a pretty good January, but then has suffered a long duration slide back to their initial price for the year around mid-March, and since then pretty steady at roughly 40 cents a share. Probably to meet the NASDAQ buck a share requirement, at the end of last week they announced a one for fifteen share reverse split … and then over this week lost about a third of its value, with most of the move to the exits occurring on the effective date of the split. I can’t help but think that there are computer algorithms that are perhaps a little oversensitive to an event that otherwise shouldn’t make a difference to the overall value of a company.
It is interesting that all five of the YTD high flier stocks were the choice of only a single contest portfolio, and only two of those portfolios are currently above the median portfolio YTD performance, so landing a hot pick is not necessarily enough.
For most of the contest participants it was an OK week, with a small median profit of +$160 for the week. Year to date the average and median portfolios are absolutely trouncing both biotech composite indices, with profits of +$7.3k and +$8.2k. Even if only roughly half the level of the NASDAQ composites, its a decent performance.
When we look at the individual portfolios, only eight were in the black for the week, but one of those was able to swing their YTD performance into a net positive, so now ten of the contestants are in the black YTD. The big winner for the week was RKRW thanks to a 10% allocation into MOR, moving them from sixth to fourth in the YTD rankings, with a net +$24k. A closer look at RKRW’s portfolio show that their bet on MOR is a relatively small contributor to the overall performance, with three choices outperforming MOR. Only having a single big underperformed helps also.
And in the YTD rankings, it was a week of modest gains for second and third place ALONER and TOMATO, leaving their YTD ranking unchanged.
I had said that there was “one exception” to the general story this week: our longstanding top YTD contestant, BLADERUNNER. Their 20% position in JSPR (worst performer for the week), 10% in MBIO (second worst), and 5% in MGTA (fourth worst), combined to shave off -$18.2k from their portfolio value, with additional losses making the net loss for the week -$19.6k, more than three times the loss of the fourteenth place portfolio for the week. And BLADERUNNER IS stlll in first place YTD, with a net profit of +$39k. But this has consumed their buffer so now that they are only $2.7k ahead of ALONER. So, fasten your seat belts, it may be an exciting ride.
Report Time Ranges
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Recent
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3/31/23
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4/7/23
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YTD
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12/31/2022
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Index Portfolios’ Performance
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Symbol
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Recent P/L
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Recent %
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YTD P/L
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^IXIC
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-$1,279.80
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-1.1%
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$15,492.07
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^NBI
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$1,624.11
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1.7%
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-$460.80
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^SPSIBI
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$382.25
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0.4%
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-$8,342.31
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Share Performance
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Recent Performance
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YTD Performance
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Top Five
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Bottom Five
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Top Five
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Bottom 5
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Symbol
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P/L / Initial Price
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Symbol
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P/L / Initial Price
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Symbol
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YTD P/L / Initial Price
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Symbol
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YTD P/L/ Initial Price
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MOR
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27.7%
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JSPR
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-70.4%
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INZY
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440.0%
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ALT
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-75.6%
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CRVS
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20.0%
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MBIO
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-36.1%
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JSPR
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204.3%
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FULC
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-67.3%
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RFL
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19.8%
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PIRS
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-18.8%
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PRVB
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129.7%
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AVTX
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-63.9%
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CLSD
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17.9%
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MGTA
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-13.0%
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EYEN
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127.6%
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BCAB
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-59.5%
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BFLY
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16.3%
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CRDF
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-11.1%
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OMER
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111.9%
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BLCM
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-58.5%
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Average and Median Portfolio Performance
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Recent P/L
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YTD P/L
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Avg.
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Median
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Avg
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Median
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-$1,037.89
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$156.90
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GENEGURU
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$7,300.60
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$8,246.68
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DEW DILIGENCE
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Top Seven Portfolio Performances
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Top Recent Performers
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Top YTD Performers
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Contestant (Prev. Rank)
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Recent P/L
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P/L vs. ^SPSIBI
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YTD P/L (Rank)
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Contestant (Prev. Rank)
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YTD P/L
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vs. Top Portfolio
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P/L vs. ^SPSIBI
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Rec. P/L (Rank)
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1 - RKRW (2)
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$4,723.74
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$4,341.50
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$24,314.08 (4)
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1 - BLADERUNNER (1)
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$38,974.89
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——
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$47,317.20
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-$19,568.64 (15)
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2 - DEW DILIGENCE (13)
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$3,961.11
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$3,578.86
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$8,246.68 (8)
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2 - ALONER (2)
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$36,309.72
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$2,665.17
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$44,652.03
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$2,668.91 (5)
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3 - TECHNETIUM (6)
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$3,101.57
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$2,719.33
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$11,990.14 (7)
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3 - TOMATO (3)
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$31,465.30
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$7,509.59
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$39,807.61
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$2,435.72 (6)
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4 - BULBAMAN (9)
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$3,061.25
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$2,679.00
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$667.04 (10)
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4 - RKRW (6)
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$24,314.08
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$14,660.81
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$32,656.39
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$4,723.74 (1)
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5 - ALONER (3)
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$2,668.91
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$2,286.66
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$36,309.72 (2)
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5 - ARTHUR RADLEY (5)
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$21,021.72
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$17,953.17
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$29,364.03
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$817.52 (7)
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6 - TOMATO (8)
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$2,435.72
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$2,053.47
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$31,465.30 (3)
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6 - STEVE LOKNESS (4)
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$16,623.49
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$22,351.40
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$24,965.80
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-$5,836.97 (14)
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7 - ARTHUR RADLEY (4)
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$817.52
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$435.27
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$21,021.72 (5)
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7 - TECHNETIUM (7)
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$11,990.14
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$26,984.75
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$20,332.45
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$3,101.57 (3)
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Top Portfolios’ Contents
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Top Recent Performance Portfolio (RKRW)
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Top YTD Performance Portfolio (BLADERUNNER)
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Symbol (Rank)
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Current Allocation
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Value/Total | ROI
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YTD Stock P/L
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Recent Stock P/L
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% Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L
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Symbol (Rank)
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Initial Allocation
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Value/Total | ROI
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YTD Stock P/L
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Recent Stock P/L
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% Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L
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ETON
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10.0%
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10.1% | 25.9%
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$2,588.65
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-$1,063.83
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7.9%
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CRDF
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20.0%
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15.4% | 6.8%
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$1,357.14
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-$2,214.29
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4.7%
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HROW
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10.0%
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12.5% | 55.1%
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$5,514.91
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$1,178.86
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6.4%
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CRIS
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15.0%
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12.0% | 10.9%
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$1,636.36
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$381.82
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6.0%
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KALV
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10.0%
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9.5% | 18.0%
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$1,804.73
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$177.51
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8.5%
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ENTA
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5.0%
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3.1% | -14.3%
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-$716.90
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-$63.41
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23.3%
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KPTI
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10.0%
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9.7% | 20.6%
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$2,058.82
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$617.65
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8.3%
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IOVA
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10.0%
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6.7% | -7.2%
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-$719.87
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-$281.69
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10.8%
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MOR
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10.0%
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11.1% | 38.3%
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$3,826.82
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$2,765.36
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7.2%
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JSPR
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20.0%
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43.8% | 204.3%
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$40,869.57
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-$14,078.67
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1.6%
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OCUL
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10.0%
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14.8% | 83.6%
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$8,362.99
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-$391.46
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5.4%
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MBIO
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10.0%
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4.1% | -43.3%
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-$4,329.11
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-$3,610.13
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17.6%
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PHAT
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10.0%
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5.5% | -31.4%
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-$3,137.25
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$499.11
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14.6%
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MGTA
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5.0%
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6.8% | 88.2%
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$4,410.13
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-$649.37
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10.6%
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TCON
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10.0%
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11.1% | 38.3%
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$3,825.50
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$1,140.94
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7.2%
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MRSN
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15.0%
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8.3% | -23.5%
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-$3,532.42
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$947.10
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8.7%
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TELA
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10.0%
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7.7% | -4.5%
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-$452.17
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$295.65
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10.5%
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URGN
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10.0%
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8.0% | -0.8%
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-$78.92
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-$496.05
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10.1%
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