Craig, I agree in principal. I halved my CIEN position at 61 for that reason.
However, I know LU quite well having worked with them both as LU and AT&T Network Systems. CSCO, big as it is, still has an entrepreneurial aggressiveness. LU still has a lot of AT&T's bureaucratic ways. You're correct in that they aim to absorb CIEN's market. But they will move more cautiously, beset by some of their own internal battles between Bell Labs, manufacturing, sales and management. They will kill CIEN by slow suffocation, not rapier-like swiftness ala CSCO.
If CIEN is smart enough and nimble enough, they may partner up or take other offensive action of their own to keep their technology position viable (and, more importantly, visible). LU is deadly, but not as vicious toward smaller competitors as CSCO, MSFT or INTC.
I will keep watching CIEN but will remain neutral until they either surprise us by outsmarting LU or until they freeze, rabbit-like, and become roadkill for the jersey devils. |
