| | | "supply deficit this quarter"
Supply is well behind where we were in '18.
N on-OPEC’s December Oil Production Drops – Peak Oil Barrel
A guest post by Ovi
Below are a number of Crude plus Condensate (C + C) production charts, usually shortened to “oil”, for Non-OPEC countries. The charts are created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and are updated to December 2022. This is the latest and most detailed world oil production information available. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites such as Russia, Brazil, Norway and China is used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction for a few of these countries and the world. The US report has an expanded view beyond production by adding rig and frac spread charts.
 December Non-OPEC oil production decreased by 317 kb/d to 50,784 kb/d. The largest decrease came from the US, 276 kb/d.
Using data from the April 2023 STEO, a projection for Non-OPEC oil output was made for the period January 2023 to December 2024. (Red graph). Output is expected to reach 52,569 kb/d in December 2024, which is 167 kb/d higher than the December 2019 peak of 52,402 kb/d.
From January 2023 to December 2024, oil production in Non-OPEC countries is expected to increase by 1,389 kb/d. The major contributors are expected to be US, Canada, Norway and Guyana. Russia is expected to provide the largest decrease.....
 World oil production in December decreased by 150 kb/d to 81,775 kb/d according to the EIA (Green graph). January is expected to drop by an additional 283 kb/d to 81,492 kb/d.
This chart also projects World C + C production out to December 2024. It uses the April 2023 STEO report along with the International Energy Statistics to make the projection. (Red markers).
It projects that World crude production in December 2024 will be 83,540 kb/d. Note that the December 2024 production is 1,046 kb/d lower that the November 2018 high of 84,586 kb/d.
The production increase from January 2023 to December 2024 is 2,048 kb/d.
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and, in the comments,
OPEC+ Oil Production Sees Biggest Drop In 10 Months
In March, OPEC+ producers saw the biggest decline in their collective production in 10 months, as output fell by 680,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 37.64 million bpd, an assessment by Energy Intelligence showed this week.
Russia, which said it was cutting oil production in March, as well as Nigeria accounted for most of the OPEC+ oil production drop. Declines in Russian and Nigerian oil production accounted for 440,000 bpd, or two-thirds, of the March drop in OPEC+ output, according to Energy Intelligence.
In March, oil production from the OPEC+ group fell to levels last seen in May 2022, with the alliance 2.5 million bpd below its targeted collective production quota. That is the largest gap between overall quota and actual production since October last year, per Energy Intelligence’s assessment.
Just after the end of March, several major OPEC+ producers, led by the top producers in the Middle East, announced on April 2 a total of 1.16 million bpd of fresh production cuts between May and December this year. Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader and top global crude exporter, will cut 500,000 bpd and said that the move was “a precautionary measure aimed at supporting the stability of the oil market.”
Apart from Saudi Arabia, OPEC heavyweights Iraq, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Kuwait, plus OPEC’s Algeria and Gabon, and non-OPEC Oman and Kazakhstan, announced the 1.16 million bpd cut. That’s on top of Russia’s current 500,000 bpd cut which was extended until the end of the year.
From within OPEC, Iraq is set to cut 211,000 bpd of its supply, the UAE – 144,000 bpd, and Kuwait – 128,000 bpd. Added to the Saudi cut of 500,000 bpd, nearly 1 million bpd of supply from the Middle East will disappear from the market as of next month.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com |
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