UAN - The variable distribution MLP that could go a long way Message Board

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Non-Tech : UAN - The variable distribution MLP that could go a long way

UAN 109.15

+0.6%

Jan 9 3:48 PM EST

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From: Elroy	4/16/2023 8:50:00 PM
	of 816

I've posted this a few time, but as we're heading into the Q1 2023 earnings release, here's my Q1 model: UAN price per ton $380, volume sold 280k, = $106 million +Ammonia price per ton $850, volume sold 55k = $47 million +Urea = $6 million =Fertilizer sales = $159m +Shipping and Other = $10m +45Q Carbon Capture monetization = $18m =Revenues = $187m -Direct Op Expenses = -$55m (guidance $55m-$65m, guidance excludes changes in inventory) -Cost of Materials = -$30m -SG&A = -$8m =EBITDA = $94m -Interest Expense = -$7m -Maintenance Cap Ex = -$7.5m =Cash Available for Distributions = $80m =Distribution = $7.54 -------- My current Q2 2023 model with UAN at $300/ton and ammonia at $900/ton and no carbon credits delivers $10.97 distribution due to higher volumes. I got no idea what will happen in Q3, but we're looking at nice lump sum payouts for at least two more distributions. Show me the money, Jerry!

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