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Strategies & Market Trends : News Links and Chart Links
SPXL 219.24+2.0%Nov 26 4:00 PM EST
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From: Les H4/21/2023 10:58:00 AM
   of 29600
 
Momentum continues to fade with the MACD indicator increasingly converging on its signal line in what could amount to a sell signal in the days ahead. Traditionally, a sell signal with respect to MACD within the window of the average peak of the best six months of the year for stocks that concludes at the start of May has provided a valuable signal to exit stocks, allowing the market to digest the strength that has been achieved over the past six months and wait for a better setup to re-invigorate risk within portfolios sometime during the volatility of the summer months (note: this does not mean “Sell in May and go away”). Booking profits in risk assets upon the confirmation of sell signals in the spring and buying back upon the peak of volatility during the summer, whether that point is revealed before, during, or after the third quarter, has historically proven to be an effective strategy to producing quality risk-adjusted returns. Time will tell if this proves to be the case this year, but given the degradation that has been observed in macro fundamental data, we are inclined to believe that we will see a better entry point to be aggressive in risk later this summer. The large-cap benchmark still needs to violate the December low at 3764 to confirm a declining intermediate path, one that will likely lead to the ultimate low of this cycle in the months/quarters ahead.

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