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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation
CRSP 54.76-3.9%11:59 AM EST

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Lance Bredvold
To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (52049)4/25/2023 5:45:26 PM
From: A.J. Mullen1 Recommendation   of 52153
 
This is interesting. The results across a number of metrics look remarkably similar to those for amvuttra, Alnylam's drug, approved last summer. (This is from JP Morgan today: Slight differences here and there, but cross-trial efficacy comparison looks largely in line with Amvuttra, in our view. (JPM's emphasis))

Both are self-administered, Amvuttra every three months, rather than Ionis's monthly. Both are a big improvement on Onpattro, the current market leader from Alnylam that's given intravenously every three weeks.

Ionis looks better to me now than last Friday, knowing it's drug was on par with amvuttra. My post-hoc rationale for the lackluster reaction is that it was expecting good results while looking for a clear clinical advantage for one or other.

In the absence of clinical superiority, I suppose the two will battle it out on price and sales acumen. Alnylam has the advantage of being already being approved and with sales teams in place for that very indication, but it's their business to lose. Approval for Eplostersen won't be good news for Alnylam, but again that expectation must have been baked into the price before Monday's release. I lightened up a little on my holding of Alnylam today. Like Ionis, it's more than a one-trick-pony.

Ashley
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