Balti,
I'll try to provide some answers to your list of questions.
- Investments only in the US or also outside?
We try to stick to the U.S. markets. We will buy Canadian stocks if listed on the U.S. markets. That does not include the OTC. We look at NYSE, NASDAQ, and AMEX. The main reason is that for the price movement action to take place, peoples emotions must be affected by what they see. These markets provide the most exposure to a large investing public who will generally base their buying and selling on there emotions that have been affected by the price movement they are seeing.
-for the us stock on which exchange do you mainly operate? do you use OTC?
See answer above.
- is this a strategy that is still valid today or is it difficult to find interesting shares for Ted method?
It isn't that hard but we do look at a huge number of stocks to arrive at a much smaller group of stocks that go onto our watch list where we are waiting for what we believe to be a good buy signal.
-Has the timing shortened compared to the drafting of the book? in the sense are the developments shorter or are there still such long accumulation bases?
We still look for the 3 or more year "flat" base which actually have a very slight slope to it, or we we look for the 2 or more year down slope (we like a gentle down slope, not a steep down slope), or we look for 2 or more year triangles. There are times when we will take a slightly shorter basing period but we don't cut it short by much. Also, review what Ted said about quiet periods before a up move that forms the buy signal. We consider the quiet period to be very important. Quiet perods are a sign of stock accumulation by the smart money -- manipulators. We are trying take the ride with them. On the speed of events taking place in the markets today, Robert (Bob) has said several times that he believes everything has sped in this modern time where news as other information is more quickly accessible.
-How do you decide the number of shares to hold and the capital allocation? as I proceeded to read the book I seem to understand that ted was quite focused less than 10 actions if I'm not mistaken
Bob, may disagree with me but I like to have a number of stocks, I would say at least 8 or 10, and I like to have approximately the same amount of money in each position. Later, if I see action in a particular that I like and I think it still has plenty of room to climb in value withing the expected gains that Ted has said to expect, I may add to the position.
-How can portfolio size affect strategy?
I'm not sure what you mean. Keep the number of different stocks in your portfolio low enough that you can check on all of them two or three times a day when they are moving and at least once a day for every stock.
-How do you enter a position? in the sense if I decide to allocate for example 100000 on a share how do you move it.
I have an account set up with eTrade, I2000 had a similar one set up with AmeriTrade. We both have money that we put into the accounts that we can use when we decide to buy stock. I like these online brokerage accounts because there is no commission for buying and selling stock and because I can submit buy and sell orders from my computer or even through an app on my smart phone if I am away from home when I decide to trade. I don't know what type of brokerage service is available to you but these types of online brokerage accounts are, in my opinion, the way to go in this country. For getting money to them, I can electronically transfer money from my bank account and while I have never done it, I assume they will accept a check mailed to them. Before I would mail a check, I would call eTrade and inquire as to how to make sure of what is needed to get the money into the proper account. These online brokerage providers always have someone to speak to by phone.
Reading your answers I noticed that Mr. Robert had the opportunity to meet Ted in person, I would like to know what views Ted had on Ben Graham,.
I don't know if Ted was even aware of Ben Graham. Remember, Ted's method is a Technical trading method based almost entirely on chart patterns. Those of us that follow technical analysis believe that technical analysis is generally the only method that is predictive of the market action and to a slightly lesser degree, the action of a stocks price movement. Value investing as Ben Graham believes in is Fundamental analysis and to some degree is useful in picking a stock but I think it is less important than what you see in the chart of the stock. Looking at a stocks balance sheet is just adds a little more reason when I have already seen a good Ted Warren chart pattern. (Remember, earnings are part of a balance sheet and Ted made a point that earnings were not that important to whether the stock was going to move up.)
Also I read from Mr. Weagle's post that Mr. Robert's investment strategy also refers on balance sheets if possible how does this affect stock picks via charts and also i have read that strategy has changed from ted method to aristocrats if possible what is this due to,
Since Bob had already made a lot of money in the market by a rather aggressive strategy of buying Ted Warren type stocks and because Bob was getting up in age to the point of retirement, he became more conservative with most of his investments. He buys stocks that are so called dividend aristocrats, that is, they pay and have paid for years a high dividend, usually 4, 5, or even higher percentage dividends. These stocks tend to have only moderate fluctuation in in the stock price. Bob gets a return on his investment that usually beats the current interest rates that he might get on CDs in a bank, and he still has the possibility of the price increase when we are in a favorable market environment.
also it would be a real treasure if mr robert would like to share his main advice on how to get around given his great experience.
I humbly apologize for taking your time, it is a real pleasure for me to meet you, thanks again.
Ps i don't live on US
Where do you live? Just by coincidence, I2000 and I both live in Texas and Bob spend part of the year in Texas and part of the year in Wisconsin. Despite that, we have never met each other face to face.
By the way, don't worry about missing opportunities. There will always be new opportunities in the future. On top of that, the last two years have been a tough time to make money in the market.
I don't know how much you have studied Ted's book. I've read it several times and I have learned new things every time I read it. I highly recommend reading it again and studying the charts to be sure you are seeing what he is talking about as he talks about his ideas and strategy.
I also recommend that you search through the past postings of Investolator2000, Robert Furman, and me for the last three years, but not the weekly postings of how our investments are doing but instead where we are replying to other novice investors on the board that were asking for help in understanding Ted's method or wanting our opinion on particular stock chart.
WEagle |
