Cash $3483
There I was, slowly giving insanity a bad name, when I realized 2024 earnings estimates were $7.27
to $7.38, for a PE then at sub 23.
From CFRA - this only makes sense in the market: "We cut our 12-month target $116 to $208, 38x
our '23 EPS view, near peers, but below the five-year average of 51x. We lift our '23 EPS view
to $5.47 from $5.45 and '24 to $7.44 from $7.27".
"Bad" quarter had earnings beat estimates by 14%. +67% yoy.
For today, 118 shares, avg. $166.27.
A little lower than what this director got for his $5,490,000.
sec.gov
04/26/2023 10:11:22 Sold 30 MSFT @ 294.5501 8,836.43
04/26/2023 14:58:37 Sold 25 MSFT @ 295.4001 7,384.94
04/26/2023 09:22:37 Bought 3 ENPH @ 178.01 -534.03
04/26/2023 09:35:00 Bought 4 ENPH @ 173 -692.00
04/26/2023 09:36:35 Bought 5 ENPH @ 172.01 -860.05
04/26/2023 09:40:17 Bought 5 ENPH @ 167.51 -837.55
04/26/2023 09:47:20 Bought 5 ENPH @ 166.25 -831.25
04/26/2023 09:49:08 Bought 5 ENPH @ 165.01 -825.05
04/26/2023 10:14:30 Bought 25 ENPH @ 167 -4,175.00
04/26/2023 10:35:57 Bought 25 ENPH @ 166.75 -4,168.75
04/26/2023 13:04:48 Bought 8 ENPH @ 166 -1,328.00
04/26/2023 13:44:43 Bought 8 ENPH @ 165.51 -1,324.08
04/26/2023 15:01:04 Bought 25 ENPH @ 161.73 -4,043.25
Inflation Reduction Act was signed the end of August.
CFO from their call:
"Now I'd like to discuss how the advanced manufacturing production credits from the IRA will be
reported in our earnings, while waiting on the implementation guidelines from the U.S. Treasury.
Based on the current guidelines, the production credit can be claimed as direct pay or in the
form of tax credit. Under direct pay, the production credit will be accounted for as a reduction
in cost of goods sold. And in tax credit, you would be reported in the tax expense line.
Either way that will provide us the same dollar impact to our earnings per share as the production
credit is nontaxable. We expect the production credit, net of any incremental costs for domestic
manufacturing, to be in the range of $20 to $30 per microinverter sold to customers. We expect
to ship 50,000 net in USA microinverters to customers this quarter. We plan to have our U.S.
contract manufacturing facility to be fully operational by the end of 2023. We estimate shipments
to reach our U.S. capacity of 4.5 million microinverters per quarter by the end of 2024, assuming
robust demand."
Margin every quarter has been 40% to 45%. This is real rough, but maybe ballpark.
Microinverter $230. 40% margin = $92. Actual cost $138. $20 = 14% or $30 = 21%.
Doesn't sound like that much but 4.5m inverters a quarter X 4 = 18 million a year.
At $20 per inverter, that's a 360 million savings.
Since ENPH isn't planning on cutting prices, I have no idea what this has to do with inflation reduction. |
