Dean,
There's a major psychological difference between this earnings announcement and last. Everyone had big, big, big expectations going into the last announcement. Coming into this one we already know that Q4 stunk up the joint, so expectations are low.
Secondly, the price action in the stock is just the opposite this time as it was last quarter. Coming into the earnings announcement last quarter the stock was already on it's way down. Smart money already had the heads up, and was out the door long before the earnings were released. Dumb money, like me, held all the way down and bit the bullet!! (May have even picked up a few more shares at fire sale prices) Based on the recent price action, I submit that the exact opposite is happening, that is, smart money has been buying over the last 6 weeks.
That said, I don't have a crystal ball and who knows what the stock will do next Tuesday, or next month for that matter. A lot depends on what is said in the cc. Based on past performance, I won't be surprised to see the stock dip down next Tuesday as a result of some just not able to handle the bad quarter. This is still a story stock and it's going to trade on its future prospects, not earnings.
All in my opinion, and I was wrong once.....FWIW <g>
Jay |
