Bob, thanks for your reply. Found a passing reference to
Endosonics in this post on AVEI (Arterial Vascular) stents
on AOL. I thought in general it made interesting reading.
Any comments appreciated...whether related to ESON or the
rest of the article regarding the stent market. Peter.
Subject: If you listened, your portfolio thanks me
Date: Wed, Dec 24, 1997 04:24 EST
From: Ntervene4u
Well investing friends I hope you have taken advantage of this 1997 high flyer [AVEI]........I was surprised to see my post of a year ago printed for all the world to see and thank all of you who have e-mailed me to thank me for the perspective I relayed at that time...........please just send money (LOL ...... only half joking).
If anyone is interested in the US stent market as I see it today please read on......
Well the doom and gloom I predicted for J&J has come to pass in spades.......it is interesting to see the transition of the Cordis (J&J) reps going from a position of being cocky, having the only good stent on the market, to a point where they are in labs bad mouthing their competitors begging to get one of their stents used because they are in the lab that day. GDT sent out a press release stating they have a market share "north of 50%" but my personal guess is it is north of 75%........but this is going to change as the gfx is now approved.
Forgive me I digress..........the poor trackability of the Palmaz-Schatz stent has been written about and does not bear repeating. The Crown stent appears to have very little advantage over this once mighty dinasour and the feelings toward J&J have not changed. Everyone from the materials manager to the director of interventional services to the cath lab manager to the interventional cardiologists are quietly reveling in the change of seasons that has occured since the dawn of the multilink and are truly enjoying watching J&J twist in the wind. I will be surprised if J&J is able to maintain a 20% market share looking forward. Nobody that I am aware of (with the possible exception of Scripps in San Diego where Dr. Richard Schatz has become a centimillionare) would be interested in talking about bundling with Cordis. They have a marketing agreement with Endosonics ESON who have an excellent IntraVascular UltraSound system and the Doppler Flowire but they have done such a poor job of marketing those products that most people have no idea they even have a marketing agreement.
At present there are two competitors on the scene......Guidant GDT and Arterial Vascular Engineering AVEI. The multilink stent is an excellent product. It is very trackable down difficult tortuosity, has good radial strength and can be placed easily but unfortunately it has a few drawbacks. It is radiolucent and because of its design cannot be expanded past 4.0 mm. This means its exact position cannot be appreciated under fluoroscopy, its post expansion dynamics cannot be observed without IVUS assistance and it is not an option for large vessels. The main advantage the multilink has is GDT's ability to bundle with its wires and balloons (which are very good). If history is any predictor, however, GDT will snub their noses and refuse to deal with their customers (for those of us who can remember when ACS was owned by Lilly.....enough said).
AVE has now achieved market approval for their MicroStent II and gfx stent systems and should become the market leader in short order. The MicroStent II is a good product but I do not believe it will get much use as it is not superior to the multilink and it is inferior to the gfx. Now.......the gfx.....this is the stent the market has been waiting for. It has been the talk of every symposia I have been to for some time and it is the most
trackable stent available in the world. It has seven different lengths, is mildly radiopaque and is expandable past its maximum diameter with radial strength that is equivalent or greater than J&J's stent products.
I am a shareholder of AVEI so I will not attempt to put any marketing spin on their products. I know their projections are for a 25% market share which would put their 1998 earnings at a little over $2.00 a share. I expect they will beat these projections and am holding for my shares for triple digits. I am somewhat concerned at their sales force which they have invested heavily in buliding with generous stock option and high gaurenteed earnings.
With the package they offered to lure reps they literally could have had any in the industry and the ones they have chosen are somewhat perplexing. Of the reps I personally am acquainted with whom they have hired I would call 1 a top performer, 1 has strong relationships with high volume operators but has not been a top performer, 1 that has not shown much at all and 3 that have not shown anything and have no relationships at all in the areas they have been moved in to (and need I mention the generous moving package AVE has given these lucky salespeople). Salespeople don't make 6 figures without being very competitive and I am afraid the executives have wildly underestimated their competition.
I do not think this will make much difference, however, as I expect either Medtronic MDT or Boston Scientific BSX will gobble this one up in the not to distant future. MDT has the Wiktor stent which is not competitive and will probably not exceed a 2% market share. It has been a mystery to us in the cardiology business that MDT has done such a poor job in the cath lab while across the hall in the Electrophysiology lab they are king. Their beStent has promise but is FAR in the future and they have not had any worthwhile new technology (balloons, etc) in recent memory. There was talk they were going to acquire BSX which would have made them THE force in cardiology but the word was it was a clash of cultures. Either way, they need help and AVE does have the best stent in the world and only 30M outstanding shares. Boston Scientific BSX could also benefit greatly from the gfx as talk is they are having trouble with their Nir stent because of design flaws (something about the weld not being as stable as needed and having the potential to fracture).
I am tired and going to bed.....I hope this is somewhat informative.......take it or leave it it is one persons opinion. |
