The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread Message Board

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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread

VTI 337.60

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Dec 22 4:00 PM EST

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To: Investor2 who wrote (10006)	5/18/2023 6:38:15 PM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (3) of 10065

It is possible, but it depends on a number of factors. Short term, the bond market is pricing in another likely Fed rate hike. Also, inflation is still quite high in terms of CPI and average hourly earnings. Longer term, the yield on the 10 year bond and TLT should come down once the Fed stops raising rates and the economy begins to slow and heads to recession. So far, the economy has been quite resilient due to the strong labor market. Eventually, the US economy is going to grind to a halt based on all the interest rate hikes in the system. The case you are making for higher bond yields would depend on inflation remaining stubbornly high while growth becomes anemic to non-existent. That is stagflation, the best environment for Gold. Take a look at the price of copper. It does not bode well for stocks moving forward intermediate term. Looks like my SPX target of $4300 is going to come to fruition. I have an eerie sense that all these rate hikes are going to have their full effect later this year into 2024. Not looking forward to that.

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