I came across this report from Lehman Brothers today.
My apologies to the thread if this has already been posted.
cheers,
kash
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Headline: LGND: Possible Expansion of Targretin Market to Breast Cancer Author: CA Butler,PhD/E.Ende,MD(212)526-4410 Rating: 1 Company: LGND Country: COM CUS Industry: BIOTEC Ticker : LGND Rank(Prev): 1-Buy Rank(Curr): 1-Buy Price : $14 1/2 52wk Range: $18-9.13 Price Target: $ 24 Today's Date : 02/12/98 Fiscal Year : DEC ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ EPS 1997 1998 1999 2000 QTR. Actual Prev. Curr. Prev. Curr. Prev. Curr. 1st: -0.32A -0.32E -0.32E - -E - -E - -E - -E 2nd: -0.32A -0.33E -0.33E - -E - -E - -E - -E 3rd: -0.35A -0.25E -0.25E - -E - -E - -E - -E 4th: -0.09A -0.15E -0.15E - -E - -E - -E - -E ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year:$ -1.06A $ -1.05E $ -1.05E $ - -E $ - -E $ - -E $ - -E Street Est.: $ -0.87E $ -0.77E $ - -E $ 0.09E $ - -E $ - -E ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Price (As of 2/12): $14 1/2 Revenue (1998): 54.5 Mil. Return On Equity (98): N/A Proj. 5yr EPS Grth: N/A Shares Outstanding: 35.2 Mil. Dividend Yield: N/A Mkt Capitalization: 510.4 Mil. P/E 1998; 1999 : N/M; N/A Current Book Value: $0.98 Convertible: YES Debt-to-Capital: 13.7% Disclosure(s): C ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ * Ligand presented preclinical data showing that Targretin Oral was very effective versus Tamoxifen (72% vs. 33%) at regressing breast cancer in mouse tumor models.
* We expect that the company will begin a phase II trial using Targretin Oral in a breast cancer indication. This could increase the market potential of the drug.
* Ligand is expecting to file an NDA using Targretin Oral in CTCL in 2H98. If the compelling preclinical data can be duplicated in the human phase II trials the drug may be used off-label for breast cancer patients.
* As a proxy for potential sales of Targretin in the breast cancer indication, 1996 sales of Tamoxifen were $560 million.
* Consistent with picking LGND as part of our second annual holiday gift list, we view the current stock price as attractive thus we reiterate our 1-Buy rating with a price target of $24. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Ligand Pharmaceuticals held a conference call this morning to discuss future plans of possibly using Targretin Oral in a breast cancer indication. In a preclinical mouse tumor model, the drug was compared to Tamoxifen which blocks estrogen-induced breast cancer growth. 72% of mice that received Targretin experienced complete tumor regression while only 33% of mice that received Tamoxifen demonstrated tumor regression. In addition, combination therapy using Targretin and Tamoxifen exhibited a greater than additive effect.
Although only in mice models, the results are compelling. More importantly, they open the possibility that the company will begin a phase II trial in breast cancer patients using Targretin either alone or in combination with Tamoxifen. The initial indication (and expected indication for NDA filing) for Targretin is cutaneous T cell lymphoma (CTCL) which is an extremely limited market. Ligand expects to file an NDA for the CTCL indication in 2H98. We have been cautious with our expectations for sales of Targretin for CTCL. However, by initiating a phase II trial in the breast cancer indication, the company is opening the possibility of off-label usage of the product in breast cancer patients if the compelling preclinical data can be duplicated in phase II human studies. The potential market of CTCL is less
than $25 million. However, as a proxy for Targretin's potential in breast cancer, in 1996, Tamoxifen had sales of $561 million.
Among other product highlights, Targretin capsules are being used in phase II/III trials for advanced lung cancer, phase IIb studies for ovarian cancer, head and neck cancer and KS and phase II trials for Targretin Gel in actinic keratosis. AHP, in collaboration with Ligand, will file an IND in 1Q98 for TSE424, an estrogen receptor partial agonist, in osteoporosis.
NDAs in the 1998/99 time-frame include those for Panretin Gel for KS in 1Q98, Targretin Topical for CTCL in 2H98 and Targretin Oral in 2H98.
In conclusion, over the next 12 months, we anticipate numerous additional clinical, regulatory, and strategic news events. Consistent with picking LGND as part of our second annual holiday gift list, we view the current stock price as attractive thus we reiterate our 1-Buy rating with a price target of $24.
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION: Ligand Pharmaceuticals is a molecularly-based drug discovery and development company. It is primarily focused on the development of drugs that regulate intracellular receptors (IRS). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Disclosure Legend: A-Lehman Brothers Inc. managed or co-managed within the past three years a public offering of securities for this company. B-An employee of Lehman Brothers Inc. is a director of this company. C-Lehman Brothers Inc. makes a market in the securities of this company. G-The Lehman Brothers analyst who covers this company also has position in its securities. |
