DAK,
1. 200/annum: Yes I think that SVGI will get there. They'll need a major breakthrough to do it by 1999. Even if they only make the same progress (2 unit / quarter increments), that's an additional 20 units or $140M this year. Reality will probably lie somewhere between the $140M and the $1B increment to the top line.
2. Technology: I believe that SVGI has at least 2 proven advantages.
A. Its optics allow more light to be delivered to the wafer causing shorter times to expose the photoresist.
B. Its scanning technology was also unique, permitting larger fields to be exposed with higher yields.
The lead is SVGI's. If they produce in quantity before the next upleg begins in full force they win. If not, I doubt that they'll get a second chance. This opportunity will only knock once.
Another potential advantage that they have is with the Tinsley acquisition and their newly found ability to produce aspherical lenses.
The Asia situation, (from LRCX and AMAT calls this week), is probably exactly what SVGI needs (and for that matter, MTSN). The longer it takes before the far east has to expand capacity, the better the probability that SVGI will be well positioned. Both Lam and Applied are now estimating 1 year. Papken must be praying that they're right.
By the same token, with a full year, Brad Mattson will have his CVD tool qualified in more fabs, more strip breakthroughs in NA, and if miracles happen, a RTP tool successfully beta tested. The latter will probably take a full fledged miracle, IMO.
Andrew is more knowledgeable. A query to him on General Lithography thread usually gets a prompt and complete response.
Best,
Ian. |
