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Gold/Mining/Energy : NGL to da moon (well, maybe to $10?)!!

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To: Elroy who wrote (10)5/31/2023 7:16:49 PM
From: Elroy  Read Replies (1) of 127
 
Adjusted EBITDA(1) for full year Fiscal 2023 of $632.7 million, compared to $542.5 million for full year Fiscal 2022; Adjusted EBITDA(1) for the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2023 of $173.3 million, compared to $157.4 million for the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2022




Debt reduction, leverage and asset sales:

Reduced indebtedness by approximately $530 million in Fiscal 2023

Retired all $475.7 million of the outstanding 2023 unsecured notes

Paid off the outstanding equipment note of $41.7 million

Purchased $12.5 million of the outstanding 2026 unsecured notes

Reduced total leverage to 4.56 times on March 31, 2023, surpassing initial target of 4.75 times

Subsequent to March 31, 2023, purchased $99.3 million of the outstanding 2025 unsecured notes, leaving a remaining balance of $280.7 million

Closed $141 million(2) of asset sales, including marine assets for $111.7 million in cash. Based on the trailing twelve months of Adjusted EBITDA generated by these assets the resulting sales multiple was approximately 13.0 times.


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we are guiding fiscal 2024 Water Solutions Adjusted EBITDA(3) to a range of $485 - $500 million and full year consolidated Adjusted EBITDA(3) of $645 million plus. Also, we are guiding to $125 million in total maintenance and growth capital expenditures for Fiscal 2024,

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Hmmmm, the EBITDA guidance for fiscal 2024 (Mar) is below what I was hoping. However, in the call they explained that there was a one time ~$29m EBITDA benefit in fiscal 2023 which will no recur, and also the recent asset sales removed $10m of EBITDA. So the guidance of $645m or more EBITDA next year actually does show some decent "pro forma" growth.

With $125m of fiscal 2024 Cap Ex and $645m (or more) EBITDA, that leaves $520m free cash for deleveraging. That's not too shabby! They said they would pay off the remaining $281m 2025 notes by Q1 2024 latest, and perhaps in calendar 2023. Once the 2025 notes are paid off, they'll focus on further debt paydown and refinancing the balance of 2026 and 2027 debt (about $2.6 billion).

I think these guys will have refinanced their debt and brought their preferreds out of arrears within the next two years. And then, depending on the coupon rate of the refinance, the EBITDA can be allocated to distributions and growth Cap Ex, like a normal MLP.

I don't know if this quarter moves the unit price in either direction, but the ability to see NGL at $10 in less than three years is pretty easy.
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