Eric,
Like a bad penny turning up-- you appear like clockwork every time BCMD turns down, only to disappear again with any upturn. Unfortunately, you've been able to stick around too long this time.<g>
Wish you'd buy this stock so we could make peace.<g>
Both Jeffery and I stuck our necks out Feb 3rd and said indicators were reversing and signaling an upturn. You would have had more credibility if you had shown up then and disagreed--stating why--instead of coming in a week later AFTER the stock has been down for 4 straight days. I do not believe our interpretation was wrong--in spite of your statements that since the stock went down, we were obviously wrong. EVERY indicator I use indicated a turn up on 2/3, including 9,21 day MA crossover, CCI improvement since 1/28, Chande's Stochastic of RSI in 8, 21, 34, and 55 day time periods and ALL of these bottomed and turned up on 2/2. These same indicators started to roll over the next day--so we got whipsawed. Are your calls 100% accurate? We blew this one--but not because of any flawed TA.
You have made a big issue of emphatically stating that NO study shows any accumulation in this stock--stating as proof that ANYONE that is not blind can see the chart declining since 11/20/97 and therefore obviously the stock has been in distribution. If looking at a price chart and deciding that it is under accumulation if the price is rising or is under distribution if the price is declining is the way you define acc/dist--I dont think that is too accurate. You wanted proof of accumulation--will these do?
1. Simple accumulation/distribution. Accumulation has been steady and unrelenting since 11/26/97 until peaking 2/3--and has been declining (in distribution) since. The following is the definition for a "simple" acc/dist:
The Accumulation/Distribution (Volume) indicator is calculated by adding or subtracting a percentage of the period's volume from a cumulative total. The range among the high, low, and closing determines the percentage.
When the closing price is closer to the high, a larger percentage of volume is added. When the closing price is closer to the low, the larger percentage of volume is subtracted. A closing price exactly at the midpoint of the high-low range would cause an unchanged situation in this indicator. An upward movement is seen when there is buying pressure and a downward movement is seen when there is selling pressure.
2. Joe Granville's On Balance Volume. I personally think this is the most realistic formula for calculating acc/dist. From 12/9, OBV had stayed almost flat at around 140,000--with 3 peaks to ~150,000. It peaked at 150,607 on 2/3 and has markedly declined since to 119,525. Interpretation: NO distribution for past 3 months up until 2/3 and significant distribution since. (Note that 2/3 is the date of Jeffery's and my appointment with the guillotine--coincidence?)
3. Markstein's Acc/Dist: Peak accumulation on 10/15 and has been declining ever since--BUT is still in positive territory--no crossover into distribution. (Actually a crummy indicator)
4. Bostian's Acc/Dist: Shows such enormous accumulation on 10/14 and 15 that, although there has been a steady erosion in that base established 10/14, it shows a net distribution for the first time on 2/9.
5. Williams' Acc/Dist: Admittedly has shown overall distribution since 12/12 at -2.8125 to -3.5938 as of yesterday. HOWEVER, It had a sharp spike from 1/28 at -3.4063 to -3.2188 on 2/3. Someone sure sucked us in! (us = Jeffery and me) Numbers are dry and these numbers are so small they are almost meaningless--but a histogram shows it at a glance. Definition:
The Williams' Accumulation/Distribution indicator is a volume-weighted price momentum indicator. It measures the buying and selling pressure by calculating the relationship between the number of points that the market has moved from open to close relative to the period's entire range.
The calculation involves subtracting the opening price from the closing price and dividing this value by the high minus the low. The result is then multiplied by the volume. A negative result indicates that selling pressure is evident and a short position is taken. A positive result indicates that buying pressure is evident and a long position is initiated.
So, Eric, the first 4 acc/dist indicators show accumulation--the 5th does show distribution--but it did seem to be reversing as of 2/3.
Actually, acc/dist simply tells a story over a long period of time, and it is similar to looking at a price chart--you can see if the price is overall rising or falling, but that doesn't tell you when to buy or sell.
How do you like Ensign? WOW and GET have come out with daytrading software also, but I understand Ensign is more trouble free than WOW, and GET is just too expensive if your not daytrading full time for a living. Are you using the free 30 day trial or have you sprung for the software? All the indicators you list are trend followers--dont you use any oscillators?
Regards,
Gary
PS Talked to a broker with level 2 at 3:30 today and he said there were 19 market makers on the bid at 5/8 and only 3 on the asked at 21/32 and 9 at 9/16. Sounds like MM accumulation to me<g>. |
