Allan, Posted from the AMAT site. >>AMAT IS GOING? up OR down FOR NEXT WEEK. ANY FEELINGS?<<
>In looking at the DW amat, 10week moving average, and bpsemi charts
and the probabilities of moving up in the next 4-5 weeks, IMO, I see
during the last of Feb. and March during the last three years have been a down period for AMAT and the Semi. The 10week moving average appears to lead AMAT and the Semi sector buy one month. The 10week moving average Bull % is now at the 70% point with the Semi Sector at the 62% point. With the 10 week moving average at the 70% point I expect it to reverse down within the immediate future.
However, according to DW, page 30, the probability of a stock price for profitability which hits a double top is 80.3% with an Average gain of 38.7% within 11.5 months. IMO, when AMAT hits and breaks 38 next week we will see the stock move on up to approx. $42 and then reverse back down in Tito's upward stair step sequence to around 38ish in March.
IMO, March AMAT will probably move down in preparation for tax selling in April but then again begin to move up in May, June, and July. Also, with the SEMI sectors bull % at now at 62%, with the possibility of war, Clinton problems I see that in March we will have justification for WAll STREET to take profits.
Also, IMO, I believe CEO Morgan was preparing the analyst by lowering their projections with the desire to beat their projections in May. My top projection for the year is still a high of $68+ ($70) for the 1998 year using the DW horizontal method of calculation.
Comments, anyone. Those of you with point and figure charts please refer and compare the 10week moving average charts, semi bull % sector and AMAT price chart and give me you thoughts.
Just my $.02.
Paul V. < |
