Barry; I'm moving into the Mutual Fund sector, and won't be over
here near as much.
Hind sight is twenty twenty, and I'm seeing tha one has to
specialize in a sector, or a few stocks, or play options and
only options. Trying to cover all the bases is like trying to be
straddle a fence with both ears to the ground. The specialist
in what ever area can do better than a person trying to cover
to much of the field.
-------------------
Funds may not look exciting to many who are hooked on picking
stocks , but I think I see a way to use the fund manager to
do over half the work, and leave me just tracking them
instead of the stocks. Timing seems to be the KEY.
I don't want at this time to talk you into buying any funds
mind you, but if you got looking at them now u may see
how to work it the next time we get a correction.
------------------------
As dull as they are heres and example of 3 I know..
OAKSX went up 44% then corrected and is up 21% since
then all in less than a year..that's 65% on the up
side bt without timing you would only have 26%..
with halfassed timeing 40% would have been easy.
---------------------------
RSIFX hit 60% up corrected and is Up again 18% for
a total of 78% upside..without timing it would've
been 30%..but with HA timing 50% would have been easy.
------------------------------------
Now any one who would have been timing when they exited
thoes two could have bought into BEARX..as they went down
BEARX ( a hedge fund that shorts ) went up, for 21%
say you caught only half that 10%,
add that to the 50% or the 40% and you got a good year.
-----------------------------------
A few things to look out for..front end loads..no good.
some are as high as 5% drop in 10K and u start off with
9.5k so say it does make a 40% gain t don't add up to
14k..ur end is only 13.3K or 33% ..that 5% up front
didn't make u profit, but them..it really cost you 7%,
So the fund looks like and reports in its way
of doing better than it really does for the person in it.
And the real cost is more than 5%.
STAY AWAY FROM THE STREET.COM and JIM CRAMMER
DON"T BELIVE WHAT HE SAYS , HE IS ALL HYPE
smoth and fun to watch to but a disaster to take advise from
and full of half truths. MY gut did filp folps at most of
the funds he hyped " he must be getting paid by them "
--------------------
Any way if you compare a no-load to a load take off the load
and the profit the load makes before you add up the numbers.
As u don't get any of that. ALL in all there are plenty of
no loads that do better than the loads who just want to lock
you in, and make their track record look better at ur expence.
-----------------------------
IF you go from last year this time to now the market ( S&P 500)
is only up about 24.3% with HA timing you could double that
using noload funds. While the TECH setor is hyped hard on CNBC
and were the SOX ran up 60% last year it gave back a full 40%
SO the idea that tech is leading us is a myth..not only that
it's the sector that loses more issues to pink sheets than
any other too. While playing the techs one may do good only
if one stays right on their toes.
-------------------------------
With all that said had one used timing on the techs, and played
sector funds, droped out of techs last SEPT. and rolled into
Utility, or Trasportation funds they would have beat the hedge
funds who short..and the gain could have been an easy 60% to 70%
even if you missed a full third on the swings.
-------------------------
Any one who plays options needs an option program to at least
screen for bargins, my experance says over all ,
calls make more than puts, watch out for any one who is always
just talking puts. They may mean well, and have a good
line but they don't really know, or they would be using calls
as well as puts. Also one is going to play options they should focus on options, and not try to cover so much ground. If your really
good at it then you don't need to mess with tying up money in stocks
at all. The problem here is expence..options are for institutional
players I've yet to see any one post their actull positions and
win in a consitant and meaningfull way.
------------------------------
For me I have a few stocks as the habit of picking and going back
to ones I'v had luck with in the past is hard to break, but I'm
not hunting for any more to consider, I'm going into the
no-load fund thingy and when my old plays go dead then I won't
have any stocks but funds. There are plenty of urls that
do the funds.
-------------------------------
Last don't forget to check out PCU..her cash position is very
strong she is over sold..and pays 8% while you wait.
No last I want to mention BOND funds to..( not at this time
as lots of fools are going into them ) but when they were
down ! take a long look at PPT go back to when she was 3.25
now over 8.5..keep in mind that when she was 3.25 she was
paying 10% ..and while she says 8% now but on the investment you
made back then that equals 20% yearly dividend now. Compound
the the intrest over the years with the price increase as well
and u will find that the bonds if entered at the right time
have beat the pants off the stock market and the hype up S&P.
----------------------
While CNBC can show you how say the DOW has gained they never
compare that to compuund interest. ALSO take a god look at
the dogs that the DOW has kicked out over the last year..
Nw forv the DOW to represent the market you need to collect all
thoes dogs and see what they are now trading at and how much
more they have gone down, ( and take that away from the DOW )
as they were and are the market also. So the dim wits that
call the DOW the market are just puppeting the hypsters and
sales man that want to sell stocks.. same goes for the S&P
it don't represent the market..as it's always rolling out the
dogs..and bringing in new hi flyers..the market itself
has not gained what the indexes show. Bonds funds bought in
1990 have made the owners more than if they owned either the
Dow or the S&P..compounding interest is tough to beat, along
with the price increase in the bond funds so while the
S&P went from 400 to 1000 , the ppt fund went the equivalent
of 325 to 1175 if you count the interest made during that time.
Remember if you will I'v always been 60% bonds for a long time,
and they have beat the hell out of stocks, maybe it was just
dumb luck in fact I know it was on my part.
FAX hasn't done as good from 4.5 to 9 back to 8..but she pays
over 9%, compound that..then add her increase in price and she also beat the S&P..how could lowly bond funds do such a thing to the
mighty stock market ? Any one who bought 30 trsy back in
late 94 has beat the stock market in the same time frame.
Just add up the dif in interest..compond it for 30 yrs..compressed
that into 3.5 years and add it to the face value.
---------------------
Jim
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