Next two weeks ..............
BIOX will report shortly .......
My 2 cents is the stock climbs to somewhere between
$35.00 to $45.00 a share.
These prices are the non-speculative price that will reflect
- in my opinion - the PE ratio the market will associate
with BIOX. i.e. a PE non-speculative rate of between
25 to 30, given 1997 e.p.s of $1.40. (My guess)
The PE ratio tied to BIOX will reflect, in my opinion, not the
years results, but product shipments of Synvisc by BIOX to
AHP in the 4th quarter. (USA & Foreign)
When BIOX reports, what we have to look out for are subtle things.
I am focused on the subtle things, because I think the ordinary
everyday issues have ALREADY been settled.
These ordinary things are:
(1) Synvisc works.
(2) No one can pronounce it or spell it, but the market is eating
it up. I won't bore you with incidental stories I am
hearing about it at work, btw *real* people call it "that gel",
or "the gel stuff" , but there seems to be some type of
WORD OF MOUTH ACTIVITY going on about it.
And if you think about it, what a great name: "the gel stuff".
I can even pronounce it. I hope it sticks.
In addition, *two* of the times I have heard about it at
work, it was not about OA, but rather, as a use in total
knee replacements. Both guys were in their upper 40's.
The concept was to stall the TKR operation.
Their doctors were located in NYC.
(3) Very simply - there is no better alternative.
(4) Doctors are already (4 months on the mkt) getting creative.
i.e.
TKR forestaller.
Hip replacement helper-outer.
Bone on Bone (this, we now know, won't work)
Let the pharmacy deal with the inventory channel.
And some other stuff I can't spell & don't fully understand.
(5) My entire forecast for 1998 NEVER assumed ANY 2nd time user.
Just first time users, based on a small penetration rate into
the 16 million O/A marketplace.
Well, July 1st ain't that far away.
You can decide if there will be any 2nd time users.
With regard to subtle issues this is what I mean:
(1) Did BIOX ship anything to the U.K. in the 4th qtr. Please!
(2) Did BIOX ship anything to China in the 4th qtr. Please!
(3) Does Bayer have anyplace to sell Synvisc in 1998.
We now know they cannot sell in Australia and New Zeland.
(4) How well did Hylaform do? Are BIOX and CGEN giving us
a snow job, or is the product doing ok.
(5) For God's sakes, when is the Phase I on their anti-adhesion
product going to begin.
(6) Based on Uromed's results in the female incontinence market
place (i.e a total, unequivical DISASTER) what does
BIOX intend to do with Hylaseal once they have it working.
If *they* intend to sell it - Bull*hit - it will be a disaster.
No one has successfully sold any type of product in this
market.
On the other hand, if their long term goal is to partner
with one of the big consumer companies i.e. P&G , thats
an entirely different matter.
And partnering is their standard MO.
(7) If speculative passions push the stock price higher than
$45.00 a share, then BIOX, as several people here mentioned
months ago, will probably go after a stock split.
Total specualtion on my part, but I figure just the
announcement of a stock split is good for $5 points.
We've waited quietly since October.
Waitin's over.
Enjoy!
Regards,
John |
