Keeping partisan politics aside, given the strong labor market and very low unemployment rate, I don't see how RFK, Jr. or Trump defeats Biden. We are over 15 months away from the 2024 election and a lot can happen between now and then so nothing is written in stone.
USA is very polarized politically speaking. 44 States look rock solid to me in terms of how they will vote in the 2024 election. The States that can go either way are AZ, GA, NV, WI, MI, PA.
AZ is a moderate conservative State, but most Independents and swing voters dislike Trump because of his attacks on favorite son, John McCain. I don't see AZ voting for Trump. Lots of Californians have moved to AZ which has helped shift the needle here.
WI, MI, PA have very large working class ( blue collar) populations. They will vote their pocket books. Given the low unemployment rate and rising wages, they will vote Biden if their working situations and US economy holds up.
NV is a strange State. The old timers are very conservative, but the Californians who make up 40% of the State and the transients are liberal. The NV State legislature has been very Dem over the past 4 elections.
I know very little about GA except it is very similar to AZ in that the State Legislature is very conservative while its Senators and recent Presidential election went the way of the Democrats.
Trump's style appeals to many, but not to the Independents and swing voters in GA.
If the election was held today, Biden would beat Trump again. But a lot can change over the next 15+ months. |
