Yes, I started keeping these statistics to see if the group average, maintained over a relatively long period of time, would be a useful indicator of when to buy and sell. At this point, with the history to date, I believe it is of use.
However, it is like any indicator, it is just that, an indicator and not a fool proof tool to know when stocks are going to go up or down.
By "eyeballing" the charts of the semi-equips since 1995, there have been 2 periods of rapid runups and then "crashes". Once in 1995 and once in 1997. If a person could have gotten in early on each of these rises, and then sold near the top, the percent investment growth in the portfolio would have been fantastic. The results would have been much better than a straight buy and hold approach over that period. Having said that however, even without selling, ie, using a long term buy and hold approach, the yearly long term historical growth of 20 to 30 percent would result in excellent results as well.
Let's face it, the problem is determining when to buy and sell in the semi-equips. I am still in the "data gathering" phase and probably will be for a long time to come. |
