| | | Great. Seems we are communicating well now.
IF you've read my newsletters over the past 25 years, you'll see I NEVER make "all-or-nothing" moves for indexes or asset allocation. Over that time, I've dumped a FEW stocks after I lost faith (AT&T 20 years ago was the best example. Besides T, I've had some other turds like the HEAVILY promoted VLNC here for a while that I also ended up dumping. Still, those dumped stocks were added to the portfolio with profits taken in other stocks with a very, very small starting amount.
I don't make big moves, but over time 1 to 5% beats to the markets can add up significantly...
This is a quote I started using back in the 1990s...
”....there are confident ones; they move from ninety-ten (90:10) in stocks-bonds to five-ninety-five (5:95) in stocks-bonds. That implies a degree of self-confidence bordering on hubris and self-deception. Over the decades, when both groups...have equal limited (!) ability to "time," the cautious chaps who alternate between sixty-five-thirty-five in stocks-bonds (65:35) and sixty-forty (60:40) are likely to end up with a superior risk-corrected total return score.”
[Paul Samuelson, "Journal of Portfolio Management," Fall 1994]
I think I've proven Samuelson was correct in 1994 and even more correct nearly 30 years later. If it wasn't true, then all those showing hubris and self-deception on SI would publish model portfolios with decades of results like I do. But you know what that would show...
BTW, if market timers WHO SELL MARKET TIMING CALLS did a model portfolio starting with a reasonable starting value like $10K and used something like SPY to trade eWave calls, their credibility would soar. |
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