Cohu, Inc. (COHU) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Cohu, Inc. (COHU)

COHU 24.22

+1.8%

Nov 3 3:59 PM EST

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To: bearshark who wrote (7571)	8/3/2023 8:55:52 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) of 7822

Good Morning Bear, I hate earnings when Cohu's price goes up into the announcement. Stifel's Price Target of $48.00 will be adjusted downward I suspect. The reshoring of the semi business is a powerful (but forward) event. The fab must get built first and then filled with front end equipment. Cohu bought back their own shares at a price just under $35.00. If they can buy back shares and be below the market, it will help forward EPS when they get new system orders. 38% retrace @ $37.71, 50% retrace @ $36.69, 68% retrace @ 35.68. Assuming we see a corrective wave, we need to count an ABC, which can become a bigger A, then a B and a C. Normal seasonality is out of sync, as Q2 and Q3 are normally the strongest quarters. Positing that future Quarters may well be out of normal seasonality. Teradyne which builds the testers guided down this quarter as well. Automotive is a huge wild card. There has been a huge expenditure into EV's. EV's are stacking up on dealers lots. The dogs aren't eating the dog food. ICE's are also building in inventory (but still low in days supply). My old Chevy store now has a 40 day supply vs. a 20 day supply over the last 2-3 years. Interest rates are having an effect. The deals fall apart in the Finance office. OEMS will be forced to boost rebates and or go back to buying down the rates as an incentive. Good to see a huge pile of cash and only 31 million in debt (wonder why they buy shares vs. just get out of debt)? Long and variable delays associated with rising interest rates. Time to watch the big equipment companies and those retrace levels which Cohu often finds support at. Count and wait for the C wave before buying the dip! If 150 is a trough, that is 600 million annually. A four quarter trough is a long trough historically. With the chip act and a lot of existing commitments, it could be a new high seasonality for Q1 and Q2. That would be a surprise! Bob

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