NGL to da moon (well, maybe to $10?)!! Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : NGL to da moon (well, maybe to $10?)!!

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

Recommended by:

Glenn Petersen

From: Elroy	8/9/2023 6:05:36 PM
	1 Recommendation of 127

NGL reported results. They maintained their EBITDA guidance ($645m) for the year, and expected the EBITDA to be back end loaded (Dec and Mar are bigger than Jun and Sep) same as last year. They expect to pay down all the remaining $288m 2025 noted by Mar 2024. They expect to refinance their debt by June 2024. They will not bring their preferred stock out of arrears before March 2024, but after they have refinanced they will have greater "financial flexibility". They sound like they're likely to increase EBITDA guidance later in the year. Water EBITDA is well ahead of current fiscal year expectations. I don't think these results are game changers, but NGL with refinanced debt in Sep 2024 may be fairly interesting. That's only a year away. They've got $2.8m long term debt now, and when they pay off the 2025 notes they'll have $2.5m long term debt, and with $650m EBITDA that give a leverage rate below 4.0x. I think they think that's fine, and a good leverage number to refinance the debt. Not sure what they're going to do about the preferreds, but if they devote fiscal 2025 (June 2024-Mar 2025) free cash to "fixing" the preferred stock situation, it means they may pay distributions as soon as 2 years from now. Not bad for a $4 stock. If they spend $250m on distributions rather than debt paydown, that's $2.00 per unit per year! When you've got $650m EBITDA there are lots of possibilities.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next