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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)

QCOM 154.06

-3.4%

3:52 PM EST

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To: Gregg Powers who wrote (8536)	2/15/1998 12:53:00 PM
From: Raymond	Read Replies (3) of 152472

Gregg! I agree with you partly.I didn't mention so much about QCOM in my post.I was asking why all the CDMA-companys was supporting the TDMA hybrid and not the W-CDMA.There is much more similarities between W-CDMA and IS-95 then between IS-95 and the hybrid.The thing I agree with you is that of course one of Ericssons main purposes with WCDMA was to try to stop IS-95 to be wider spread.It looks like Ericssons bet has succeeded.The GSM-operators in Asia,Europe and US +NTT-Docomo has all agreed to support this new standard.Also SK Telecom of Korea and DDI of Japan has hinted that they may use this new standard.A lot of the CDMA-orders that MOT and QCOM has got outside US has been via ownership.I see that as a weakness.Ericsson,Nokia doesn't have to buy the companies to get them to sign.A good example is Chile where QCOM are partly owner of one operator which will use IS-95.Ericsson got the other operator to choose GSM without having to put in money in that company, One thing I don't agree with you is the history.I don't know how many times it has been mentioned on this thread but it doesn't make it more correct.Ericsson didn't say that IS-95 or CDMA wouldn't work.They said that it was not mature enough and didn't add any extra compared to GSM.If Ericsson said that it wouldn't work.I think someone should be able to find a quote on that on the web.I'm waiting. If we look at the maturity.It took many years after the standard was set before the first systems was in service.Both the GSM and the american TDMA was up in service many years before IS-95. Still the GSM systems has smaller mobiles, more subscriberservices and better dataservices compared to the IS-95 systems.I know, I know.It is coming in IS-95 also but I am talking about today. When I was talking about that the other companys are afraid of the Nordic companys it's not as experts on the technology of the low levels of the standard which can be CDMA,TDMA or something else. It takes so much more to make a cellular switch.This 3:rd genearation system is not mainly about which airinterface that are used.Most of the standard will cover the network and the other nodes interfacing the basestations.Here it's where the biggest difference between the suppliers lie.Motorola has a big dissadvantage here because they have to buy the switiches from other vendors.A lot of the functionality in the mobile is also dependent of competence on the switching part.This is probably the main reason of Ericssons success in this area.A couple of years ago Ericsson was a small supplier of mobiles.Today they are the biggest supplier of digital mobiles in the world. A good advice for QCOM:s management.WCDMA is not going away.They should adapt it an try to compete in this area.The can still develop the Wide IS-95 just the same as the other suppliers are supporting different standards.Or can't they compete if they don't have the costadvantage of the licensing.If that is the case I don't think they can compete in IS-95 in the long run/R

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