| | | All of this talk about pol ad spending is kind of annoying. It's probably already priced in by the market. Think about it logically - you have an election every 4 years and bi elections every 4 years. So only 1 in 2 years are unaffected by pol ad spend. It's not hard to normalise these earnings.
That said, I agree that there is value in radio broadcasters. Am less sure about cable broadcasters purely because of the looming threat of streamers. Radio has already proved its worth against SPOT etc. and their reach remains strong enough for advertisers to stay interested.
Cable hasn't - in fact, its reach has declined massively over the last 40 years. Further, with the likes of FUBO for sports and WBD incorporating live news onto their platform, the long-term future looks bleak.
So, to me, it seems logical to short the cable broadcasters and long radio. Maybe cable does bounce a little but I doubt it.
Further, there's too much leverage in all broadcasters. Not all of them will survive. I don't know the full history of how all of this stupid leverage came about but it won't end well for everybody - in fact, even the companies I own, I do have concerns about.
(I have positions in both IHRT and CMLS. Funnily enough, I bought CMLS at the open today - guess I got lucky. Maybe not - some of you will know CMLS single-handedly decimated my portfolio in the first half of this year.)
Best,
Harshu Vyas
P.S - Sorry if this sounds pretentious or arrogant. |
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