Getcher and to the thread - I am posting an analytical article written by Iqbal today for the newspapers in the Gulf. Could you please ask Chuck to post it on the "Idea" homepage. Thank you.
Samira
Russia's new assertive face in the Iraqi crisis - End of a uni-polar world and the beginning of a new mini-cold war?
By Iqbal Latif
As Kuwait plans to brace itself from Iraqi retaliation in case `Rolling Thunder' is unleashed by the U.S., President Yeltsin has been very vocal in calling for a diplomatic solution to the present crisis. Last week he even hinted of serious consequences leading to Third World War if the strike was conducted in the presence of various kinds of deadly weapons and germ warfare in the hands of the adversary, although the statement was mellowed down later by a spokesman of President Yeltsin who had attributed Mr. Yeltsin's speech as being "misquoted" by enthusiastic American journalists whose command of the Russian language was less than perfect, political observers made good note of the fact that that was a statement which marked the beginning of the end of a new era, in which an assertive Russia was seen demanding to reassert its right and respect in the arena of global geopolitics.
Yeltsin wanted everyone to know that Russia was coming of age and is not going to be a quiet bystander or a pushover; it would certainly play a more active role in its traditional backyard, that is, the Middle East. Russia is on the road to a diplomatic comeback and anyone who treats Russia and China's stepped up opposition to a US military strike in Iraq lightly would be belittling the consequences, contents and undercurrents of this new diplomatic posturing. It is the manifestation of a new Russian desire to assert itself as a superpower and position itself for its old Arab allies, like Syria and Iraq, as a counter weight to United States. This new Russian line is a realignment of strategic priorities of Russia; it is now taking up a higher road demanding greater economic assistance and ensuring a more formidable and emphatic conduct in its superpower relationships. This is the end of a uni-polar world as we know it since the fall of the Iron Curtain. I think this is the beginning of a soft multi-polar world
There could be many reasons for this new assertive face of Russia. One is to pacify the domestic lobby and play to the galleries of ultra-nationalists like Vladimir Zhirinovsky, and the other to placate the restless senior military command who have seen Russia's might being eroded and its superpower status compromised in post-Perestroika Yeltsin democratic period. For keen observers of Russia, this was a continuation of observation made in the highly respectable "Military Technology" magazine in which Gen. Mikhail Timkin, one of the chief executives in charge of Military Technology stressed in one of his key interviews that Russia will try to radically modify its relationship with Arabs and strive for marketing Russian military equipment so as to broaden and widen its clientele base in the Middle East.
Sitting in Kuwait and watching it all happen around me, I think that the decision to unleash `Rolling Thunder' has been made and it is no longer about inspections of a few out-of-bound eight presidential palaces. Informed sources have been talking about a government in exile planning to take over if Saddam is overthrown. It is also said that ministerial portfolios have been assigned to 29 men and one woman. After detailed discussions with Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the United States. None of these powers want the disintegration of Iraq. Gen. Wafiq Al Samari, Saddam's former chief of intelligence now living in London is appointed as Minister designate of Industry. Gen. Abdel Ramir Ubayes, a Shiite is named Communications Minister. Sunday Times reports that a senior officer from Iraq's Sunni tribe has been designated as provisional head of State of Government of National Unity. The Prime Minister is Muther Naqshabendi from a respected Kurdish family. Saad Jabar and Ayad Alawi are reportedly named as Foreign Minister and Minister of Planning. Malik Al Yasiri will be Finance Minister. This provisional government, which has been leaked to the press, is a well thought-out plan after the US attack. The anticipated military rebellion and filling of the political vacuum in wake of President Saddam being overthrown is being taken care of through political moves. Moreover, considering Iraq's historical background and what they have always done with their dethroned rulers, the military strike which I believe is a reality will see the unfurling of American flags over the presidential palaces with the public cheering the United States for freeing them from the clutches of a tyrannical ruler. This anticipated sea of change amidst the Iraqis is certainly not in the Russian interests and so the well prepared military and political exercise to change the government is what Russia is very concerned about.
`Rolling Thunder' is about realignment of strategic balance of power in the Middle East. Americans so far had followed the philosophy of "dual containment" of two "rogue" states in the region, one, Iraq and the other, Iran. Now, eight years since 1990 when Kuwait was occupied by Iraq and consequently liberated in February 1991, Americans realized that a colossal error of judgement was made by Gen. Colin Powell and President Bush when they stopped Gen. Norman Schwarzkopf's forces flushing President Saddam Hussein out of Baghdad.
Within 72 hours of land action, the US forces had engaged and decimated the pride of the Iraqi Republican Guards in the hinterland of Iraq reaching as far as 100 kms from Najaf, well north of Basra and within striking distance of Baghdad. They could have easily cut the routes of the retreating annihilated Iraqi army from Basra and Kuwait moving up north to Baghdad. The twenty Iraqi divisions protecting the southern borders of Iraq, expecting the main thrust to come from there, were encircled by the deceptive "Hail Mary" pass where Allied Forces moved 200 kms west of Kuwait and launched an attack carrying the main thrust in central Iraq encircling the entire Iraqi defence in the South controlling nearly all roads to Baghdad. It was then that Gen. Powell suggested to President Bush that since the objective of liberating Kuwait had been achieved, a ceasefire should be called. It may have not been strategically right but it was a good humanitarian gesture as hundreds of thousands of innocent Iraqi solders' lives could not be sacrificed for the single purpose of removing Saddam Hussein. But if US strategic planners thought that Saddam Hussein would not be able to survive such a massive defeat and the remnants of the Armed Forces would rebel against the ruling Ba'ath Party, that was a misjudgement of historical proportions. Americans underestimated the callous and ruthless control President Saddam Hussein exercised over his government and populace.
Now "Rolling Thunder," after "Desert Storm," is set to take out Saddam Hussein and the regime of the ruling Ba'ath Party in Iraq. What US was unable to achieve eight years ago is being planned now. It has been decided that a non-conformist Iraqi regime in the region does not serve the purpose of stability as viewed by the US. Saddam's intransigent and mercurial behaviour still poses a serious threat to US strategic interests in the Middle East, of course, the pivot of this interest being the proven oil reserves around Gulf which represent 60% of the known world reserves. Saddam has miscalculated the resolve of the United States, which this time borders on a `do-it-alone' and `walk-the-talk' approach even risking the US-Russian so far peaceful co-existence and co-habitation. President Saddam or Iraq for that matter will not be the cause of a major superpower confrontation, it would be an exaggeration to suggest that, but certainly Iraq has provided the Russians the raison d'etre to make an effort to resist any further encroachment on its superpower status.
In the last eight years President Saddam Hussein has tried unsuccessfully many a time to play on the cracks within the coalition arrayed against him, this is the first time that the Iraqi ruler sees a real chance to play the superpowers against each other albeit on a minor scale. To achieve this end the Iraqi Ba'ath Party would not mind "Rolling Thunder" unleashed against them erroneously believing that this may bring Russian help and some kind of permanent breach in the Security Council that may lead to the end of sanctions, but the stakes are very high. For the US not to carry any attack would mean that the US backed down from its impossible five conditions which Iraqis must accept to avoid a devastating military attack. This failure will also clearly send a message of Iraqi diplomatic victory because this will be a clear sign of breakdown in the consensus of superpowers in terms of reference to dealing with Iraq.
To avoid this scenario the only possibility is total capitulation and humiliation of President Saddam, short of this it seems very likely that strikes will be made until President Saddam Hussein's regime relents to accept all the conditions of the UN resolutions, although I doubt the intent, the aim is to remove the bone of contention permanently. It is a game of poker but, like 1991, Iraq will most likely call the bluff to its own peril.
Russians have a broad agenda. The latest part of the equation is opening towards Gulf but its desire of friendship with Iraq is based on its historical animosity with Turkey. It wants to deny Turkey, a member of NATO, influence in the region; Iraq is a good counter balance to Turkey in Russia's opinion. Russians have economic objectives in dealing with Turkey; it wants to deny Turkey the grasp of profits from oil pipelines through their regions, trying to solicit support of Chechens so that Caspian oil routes may escape Turkish routes, reducing Turkish influence in Central Asian states. Furthermore, Russia, historically, has been torn between its relationship towards the West and its brotherhood with the Slavs. For the West, the best option for Russia is to be European and Peter The Great best tried to accomplish this. But it is the Slav mentality which is in ascendancy; the expansion of NATO is considered to be directed against Russia and Slav thinks that their objective of Russia being a separate entity is right. For the Slavs, historically, any peace with the West only corrupts the purity of Russia, so naturally, Russians are taking the ancient trek of nineteenth century towards the steppes of Central Asia. On this road, Middle East and India are the natural traditional allies.
Although we are no longer in the old cold war pre-Iron Curtain era, there is no doubt Russians have realized that they have received very little in terms of economic aid for compromising their superpower status. For them, it is important that they should get back into the Middle East and control as in the sixties the region's military market, which is likely to generate $25 billion worth of orders for the year 1998 to 2000.
The Russian assertive behaviour in context of Iraq is about politics and weapons. The balance of power on the world chessboard is beginning to change and Russia is the principal mover and a main player making the moves. Russia realizes that partnership with the United States beyond the classic East-West confrontation is not helping the economic prospects of Russia. Now it is faced with prospects of an enlarged NATO; Russians feel that their one-way sacrifices were not responded to by the West, although they dissolved the Warsaw Pact, their similar expectations for NATO met no success. The founding act between NATO and Russia made imperative on NATO that they would only consult Russia on decisions taken by NATO, and with the addition of Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic, was seen by the Russians as directed against them. It was for this reason that the Russian President refused to go to Madrid in July 1997 citing him being on vacation. So the Iraqi situation is acting only as a catalyst to what already was a provocative situation. Now Russia is making the moves in both East and South; it is moving towards its old traditional allies and has made an effort to reinforce its ties with India and thawed relations with China and Iran.
The latest policy towards Iraq is a renewal of former policy before classic East-West confrontation. Russia has now realized that it cannot expect too much of western aid for modifying its economic system, so to play its new role it has decided to reappear on the international scene and assert itself as a superpower. Welcome to the new soft multi-polar world. |
