Stocks resumed their declining path on Tuesday as concerns pertaining to the rise of interest rates continue to grow. The S&P 500 Index ended with a loss of 1.47%, showing rejection from previous short-term support, now resistance, at 4335. The 4200 target that we have proposed as fair game as part of this normal period of volatility/weakness for stocks is rapidly nearing, providing the significant make or break point for the market and its setup for the best six months of the year trade that starts in October. The horizontal hurdle now aligns with the rising 200-day moving average, an important level from a technical perspective that is likely to see buy programs re-engaged from a pure long-term momentum perspective. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bordering on oversold territory around 30, a classification that could exhaust selling pressures in the near-term, potentially coinciding with the intersection of support at the aforementioned 4200 limit. Only three days remain as part of this weakest time of year for stocks, although volatility, on its own, does not typically peak until October 9th, on average. The market is battling with tremendous uncertainties heading into the last quarter of the year, including slowing consumer momentum, a government shutdown, a cost of living crisis, a strike in the auto industry, and other economic headwinds that threaten to trigger a recession, but with uncertainty comes opportunity, so long as the sustainability of the negativity that surrounds a recession event is mitigated.
equityclock.com
Indexes look set up to retest the breakdown of complex double-triple tops within the next week. My negative numbers have gotten too high. It would take a 2% move over several days to do a retest. |
