Russia is no longer a superpower:
Putin's failing to protect his elite Black Sea Fleet (newsweek.com)
.... Russia seems to lack air defense equipment like sufficient radar capabilities to detect incoming attacks, as well as weapons to shoot down incoming drones and munitions.
........ McCardle also noted that Russia can likely do little to bolster its defenses in the region due to diminished resources.
"It would not be hard to move defensive batteries around the Black Sea ports," he said. "I think at this point the Russians have hard choices about where to utilize their remaining assets."
The success of the attacks might also be partially attributed to the amount of weapons at Kyiv's disposal. Along with weapons supplied from its Western allies, Ukraine has been able to produce its own combat drones at a high rate. A recent report from the Royal United Services Institute estimated that Ukraine loses about 10,000 drones per month fighting Russia, yet the frequency of the attacks has not decreased.
"The Ukrainians seem to have a never-ending supply of drones and missiles and are putting them to good effects against the Black Sea Fleet," McCardle said.
As for why Kyiv has turned so much of its attention toward the Black Sea Fleet, Northwestern University political science professor William Reno told Newsweek that the reason could be that Ukraine is trying to shift the Russian public's sentiment about the war.
"Ukraine's attacks into Crimea do not significantly degrade Russia's military capability," Reno said, adding that "the real aim" is to show the Russian citizens that Moscow "can't even protect its military headquarters in Crimea from Ukrainian attacks.
"While most Russians may have limited access to news of these events, dissatisfaction with Russian performance appears on Telegram channels. One can imagine Russia's elite, including in the military, are growing impatient."
In the end of his assessment, Spencer referenced a comment that Oleksiy Danilov, the secretary of Ukraine's security council, recently posted on X, formerly Twitter.
"Russia has a big problem, and it clearly shows they have a weakness," Spencer said. "If this continues, Kyiv would be able to do what one Ukrainian source stated—'cut up the Black Sea Fleet like salami slices.'"
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Putin's hopes of a counter attack are dwindling (newsweek.com)
Ukraine Strikes Are Wiping Out Putin's Top Brass (newsweek.com)
Russia Loses 38 Artillery Systems, 12 APVs in a Day: Ukraine (newsweek.com)
Putin Calling the Shots Without Listening to Military: Think Tank (newsweek.com) |
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