It is a little late to try and establish either a bullish or bearish case based upon what is currently known. The shorts are running out of ammo and money, more on that to come, and the longs are holding their breaths.
Being one of those longs, I am not holding my breath. I have bought stock as late as Friday. I keep going over my own model based upon my thoughts, and I keep coming away with the idea that CCSI is the best long term story that I have, even from these levels.
1. The "deal" will give us visibility and earnings power for the foreseeable future. I think it will give us at least 100% from this level over then foreseeable future.
2. I believe that the other applications, which CCSI will be able to go after will be even larger that Bilirubin, and will not entail all of the waiting and gnashing of teeth that this deal has done. We will not need reimbursements from 50 states, foreign approvals, additional studies, and the training time will be much less.
3. It is my personal opinion that many of the shareholders of CCSI really have no clue what they really own. Due to the fact that I talk to a lot of them, I feel I can venture a guess on that estimate. I get the question about the deal 20 times a day, just like pre-FDA. We will have a deal very quickly, THEN LET THE GAMES BEGIN!
Oh, sure I hear some posters saying that it is on to the next, the inevitable selling on the news, etc.... that is why Howard Johnson's makes 28 flavors. But, if you are looking to make real money, I honestly believe it has not begun.. It can't be over before it has begun.
4. IF IF IF over the next few months we had a "deal", a cosmetic deal, a dental deal, maybe some other "chromogenic" disease deal, and IF all of these deals gave us something approaching $30mm per year in fees, one way or the other, what might it be worth? What if 2nd year was more, 3rd,etc..... That might come out to $3 per share, and building for next few years. These numbers are on old stock, incidentally. Put a growth multiple on that, and that is what dreams are built on. |
