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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host
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To: T J Krueger who wrote (3416)2/16/1998 12:21:00 PM
From: Rock Fish  Read Replies (1) of 42834
 
>With regard to Bob's Active/Passive portfolio with
>75% invested in Vanguard's Total Stock Market Index
>- unless I'm mistaken a withdrawal from that particular
>fund MUST be in WRITING; therefore, how would one take
>advantage of a buy signal if there were to be one?
>It seems to me that by the time a letter would reach
>Vanguard the market could have already plummeted. Has
>anyone thought of this? And he does seem to be
>advocating that particular fund, along with the Vanguard
>Index fund more and more.

Do you mean withdrawal on a *sell* signal?

I doubt that Bob (or anybody) can predict the kind of "crash"
that occured in 1987.

I would suspect that his sell signal would be issued when his
model indicates a probable bear market. This scenario
would likely allow people several days to exit the market before
a significant downturn. For example, It is unlikely that his
indicators would go south on Monday followed by a crash
on Tues or Weds.

What I am more interested in is the long-term prediction
related to any sell signal. Being a long-term investor,
I would prefer to ride out a relatively short bear market.
In other words I want to ignore a sell signal that forecasts
a 1 year bear market, but I might sell on a signal that
forecasts a 5 year bear market.

--
Rock Fish

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